MyFoxHurricane.com blog

“Erika” on the horizon??

Posted by Paul Dellegatto under Daily updates

Daytime satellite pictures on Monday initially showed an impressive looking system, but as the day progressed, vertical shear started to take its toll and by this evening invest 94L was looking ragged. Thunderstorms often flare up at night over warm water as instability increases. Judging by the latest infrared satellite pictures it appears as though we are looking at a flare up of thunderstorms along with some decent outflow. What we need to see before Invest 94L is upgraded to a tropical depression are signs of a closed circulation. So far, buoy and satellite data have not indicated that the winds are blowing in a circle around the center of the storm. Conditions still favor development and there is a decent chance that we will be looking at a depression or storm during the next 24 hours.

Impressive satellite picture

94L becoming more organized, Baja California could get major hurricane.

Posted by Dave Osterberg under Daily updates

For the past 24 hours, 94L east of the islands has slowly bcome better organized. There is still a good chance that this will become a tropical depression and the Hurricane Center has given this a high chance of doing so.  In the short term computer models are in agreement in bringing it WNW, but in the long term they differ greatly.  Some want to bring it north of the islands, then taking a path similar to Bill. Others want to bring it over the Northern islands and not re-curve it. I think tomorrow the Hurricane Hunters will fly around inside it and use that data to input into the computer models. Then you will likely see more consistency in the long term.

Hurricane Jimena is a fierce category 4 storm and it seems on a beelines path to Baja California. It may weaken a bit before landfall but it will likely still be a major hurricane when it gets there.

Jimena threatens Baja

Posted by Andy Johnson under Daily updates

Even though Danny reached Nova Scotia as an extratropical system, winds in Halifax and along the southern coast of Nova Scotia were higher than they were in Hurricane Bill which remained offshore.

Invest 94L, which we have been following since it moved off of the coast of Africa is looking a bit more circular in appearance today. The visible satellite image below is from our exclusive McIDAS satellite system. There appears to be some outflow in the northern semicircle as indicative by the high level cirrus clouds. The convection is displaced from the center a  bit and scattered over a large area. However, there does not appear to be any significant shear occurring. If the convection increases and becomes more concentrated near the center over the next few days, Erika could potentially form. The models are somewhat split in moving the system either into the Caribbean or north of the Lesser Antilles. Based upon the current upper winds and recent storms in that area, it appears more likely that the system will pass north of the islands. That would put it in more of a position to recurve long before it could reach Florida.

 The image below is an excellent visible image of Category 4 Hurricane Jimena, located about 470 miles SSE of the southern tip of Baja California. Historically, most hurricanes in August and early September turn more to the west and miss Baja. However, the models are beginning to show more of a threat from Jimena to the Baja Peninsula. Places like Cabo San Lucas could be affected over the next few days. There is even a potential for some of the moisture associated with Jimena to make it into Southern California. Of course, that would help with the recent California fires.

The official track still has Jimena as a major hurricane as she approaches the southern tip of Baja California on Wednesday.

Due to the El Nino currently occuring in the Pacific, the tropical Pacific continues to be very active. Tropical Storm Kevin, however, looks like it will dissipate before reaching land.

In the Central North Pacific , Tropical Depression 2-C is expected to become a tropical storm but it should not affect the Hawaiian Islands.

Danny dies, Pacific active

Posted by Andy Johnson under Daily updates

The National Hurricane Center issued their last advisory on Tropical Depression Danny early this morning. Danny became extratropical and continued to move northeast across eastern Massachusetts into coastal Maine and into Nova Scotia this afternoon and evening. Even though he was not tropical, the remains of Danny caused winds to gust to 30 MPH in Boston and 28 MPH in Portland, ME. The image below shows that wind shear was high over the remains of Danny. However, since it was extratropical, wind shear was not an issue. You can also see below that Invest 94L will be running into an area of high shear over the next 2 days. This may prevent 94L from developing at all.

While the Atlantic basin has seen storm undergoing shear, the Eastern and Central North Pacific continue to be active. These conditions are consistent with an El Nino, which is currently active. Hurricane Jimena (below) could cause high surf along the Mexican Riviera and could threaten Baja California over the next few days.

Tropical Storm Kevin should not threaten land.

Another depression SW of Hawaii could become a tropical storm tomorrow.