MyFoxHurricane.com blog

Tuesdays Tropical Update

Posted by Dave Osterberg under Daily updates

There is only one area of interest in the tropics and that is a tropical wave east of the islands. But this like other waves this season will not be a threat. When the El Nino kicked in this year, the wind shear started in the Atlantic basin. And it is still going strong today. You can see if you put that satellite into motion the clouds moving from SW-NE indicating the shearing going on with this system.  This has been the case all season long with many systems.

With October upon us the focus for developing tropical systems will shift back to the Caribbean and Gulf Of Mexico. In many cases you will see a tropical system spin off a dying cold front down in the Gulf or Western Atlantic. No computer models are indicating anything developing over the next week or so; so sit back and enjoy this preview of fall we are going to get this week.

Tropics quiet again

Posted by Jim Weber under Daily updates

T.D. #8 was sheared apart over the weekend along with dry air surrounding the system. This has been a constant theme for nearly every tropical system this hurricane season.

The westerly shear will continue for the next day or so and then should begin to relax. The shear may relax but the dry air will continue to pose a problem for the remnants of  T.D. #8. Therefore, it looks unlikely that this system will redevelop.

Across the rest of the tropics things are remarkably quiet with a couple of weak tropical waves. Now that we are approaching October we will start to turn our attention to frontal boundaries stalling over the state and watch for disturbances forming along them.

T.D. # 8 downgraded

Posted by Jim Weber under Daily updates

As expected the wind shear in the Atlantic has taken its toll on T.D. # 8 and it was downgraded  to a remnant low late yesterday. Shear continues to be the culprit to the demise of nearly every tropical system so far this hurricane season.

The center of circulation is completely void of any convection with all the convection displaced far to the east of the center. Re-development of this system seem unlikely as the wind shear and dry air will continue the next couple of days.

The myfoxhurricane.com tropical WRF model shows the remains of T.D. #8 moving to the north into an area with low shear on Tuesday. The dry air will still be an issue and even though conditions become more favorable it looks like there will be little left of this system to redevelop.

Around the rest of the tropical Atlantic things remain relatively quiet with only a couple of weak tropical waves and nothing showing any signs of organization.

T.D. #8 likely to fall apart

Posted by Jim Weber under Daily updates

T.D. # 8 is learning what just about every other storm in the Atlantic has had to deal with, wind shear. The el Nino of 2009 is taking its toll on another tropical system.

T.D. # 8 is located 660 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands and has show some deep convection early this morning, but all of this convection is displaced to the north of the center and there are no signs that this convection is pulling towards the center.

The close-up visible imagery clearly indicates the convection to the northeast of the center with the western and southern side of the depression lacking any convection. The water vapor imagery over this same area shows a large area of dry air in the path of T.D. #8 and some of this dry air is beginning to make its way into the center.

The water vapor loop also shows the southwest wind shear which is blowing all the deeper convection northeast of the center. Analysis shows 15 kts of wind shear over the system now and computer models indicate this will likely continue over the next 3 to 4 days.

The wind shear forecast from the myfoxhurricane.com tropical WRF model indicates windshear to continue in the 15 to 20 knot range over the depression through early next week. This combined with the dry air being entrained into the system will make it unlikely that it will ever become a tropical storm and this system will struggle to survive the next few days.

TD#8 is no threat to land ….

Posted by Paul Dellegatto under Daily updates

The strong tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa a few days ago has developed enough convection and a distinct circulation to be classified as TD#8. While the storm could become tropical storm Grace at any time, the environment ahead of the depression does not favor significant intensification. There is a moderate amount of southwesterly shear, sea surface temps cool by a degree or so, and there is lots of dry air showing up on the water vapor imagery. The future track of this system is one we have seen before the season. A trough and a weakness in the subtropical ridge means a familiar turn to the northwest and eventually the north is likely. TD#8 will most likely never impact any land and should become a remnant low by early next week.

Waves still coming off the coast of Africa.

Posted by Dave Osterberg under Daily updates

As we head into the last weekend of September we are still seeing waves coming off the coast of Africa. One came off yesterday and is showing a little spin. The Hurricane center has given this less than 30% chance of development. Look behind it and you can see the huge tropical wave getting ready to emerge off the coast of Africa. It will be interesting to see what happens to that when it does. Again none of the computer models are developing anything significant over the next few days, and as I stated in my previous blog as we get into October, the focus for developing tropical systems tends to shift back to the Western Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico.

Thursdays Tropics/October Preview

Posted by Dave Osterberg under Daily updates

For the second day in a row we are seeing quiet in the tropics with no areas of interest right now. The caribbean satellite does show a lot of convection in the Western Caribbean which is elongated and disorganized. It is not expected to develop.  There is another wave coming off the coast of Africa this morning, but that is also not expected to develop.

As we head into October, the climatology of where storms form changes a bit.  Instead of the Cape Verde storms, they tend to form a little closer to the US. The Western Atlantic, Western Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico are favored spots for development. Since 1950 at least 8 October hurricane have hit the sate of Florida including of course Hurricane Wilma on October 24, of 2005. Also the last major hurricane to hit Tampa was in October of 1921. So while the numbers of storms begin to decrease, it’s not time to completely let our guard down.

Wednesdays Tropical Update

Posted by Dave Osterberg under Daily updates

It look like leftover Fred has finally made its way to the lower 48. Color me impressed that any moisture from this system actually made it all the way to the US. The good thing is it never re-organized as it did. So the southeast coast of the US will have to deal with a little extra moisture for the next couple of days. Elsewhere, it is very quiet. You see some convection firing up south of Cuba but that is not expected to develop. And all the way out to the coast of Africa there are nothing more than clusters of clouds and none of them are expected to develop.  None of the reliable computer models are developing anything over the next few days.

As we get into October, the focus for developing tropical systems usually shifts to the Caribbean and Gulf. The only thing that does concern me a bit is that water temps all over the Gulf are still in the mid 80s. It’s something to watch and we will keep an eye on it.

Invest 98L struggling to survive

Posted by Jim Weber under Daily updates

Invest 98L looks less organized today on satellite with most of the convection missing from the system. Late this afternoon there are signs that some thunderstorms are trying to reform in this system.

There appears to be an elongated area of convection with moderate wind shear over the system. A close up view with visible satellite shows most of the convection on the NE side of the circulation with virtually no clouds on the western and southern sides. This indicates that shear is beginning to increase over the disturbance quicker than models predicted and it is beginning to take it toll.

Water Vapor imagery also shows dry air to the west and a large area of dry air north of the disturbance along with an upper level low which is helping to produce southwesterly shear over the system. This shear is expected to increase over the next few days.

The WRF shear forecast indicates shear increasing up to 20-30 knots by Tuesday which will make the survival of this system very difficult.

At the same time the remains of Fred continue to move towards the eastern seaboard and look as if they will do little more than bring some showers along the Carolinas on Tuesday.

The WRF model above is valid on Tuesday morning showing the moisture north of Florida moving towards the Carolina coast.

Atlantic disturbance still disorganized.

Posted by Dave Osterberg under Daily updates

24 hours later and 98L still looks a bit disorganized. In fact a couple of the computer models have now backed off on developing it. There are still a few that do and they eventually move it WNW, then NW and into the open Atlantic.  As of early Sunday morning the National Hurricne Center still gives this a moderate chance for development.

Remnants of Fred continue to spark convection from time to time east of the Bahamas. As this moisture moves West or WNW its chances are low for development.