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Invest 98L struggling to survive

Posted by Jim Weber under Daily updates

Invest 98L looks less organized today on satellite with most of the convection missing from the system. Late this afternoon there are signs that some thunderstorms are trying to reform in this system.

There appears to be an elongated area of convection with moderate wind shear over the system. A close up view with visible satellite shows most of the convection on the NE side of the circulation with virtually no clouds on the western and southern sides. This indicates that shear is beginning to increase over the disturbance quicker than models predicted and it is beginning to take it toll.

Water Vapor imagery also shows dry air to the west and a large area of dry air north of the disturbance along with an upper level low which is helping to produce southwesterly shear over the system. This shear is expected to increase over the next few days.

The WRF shear forecast indicates shear increasing up to 20-30 knots by Tuesday which will make the survival of this system very difficult.

At the same time the remains of Fred continue to move towards the eastern seaboard and look as if they will do little more than bring some showers along the Carolinas on Tuesday.

The WRF model above is valid on Tuesday morning showing the moisture north of Florida moving towards the Carolina coast.