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Thursdays Tropics/October Preview

Posted by Dave Osterberg under Daily updates

For the second day in a row we are seeing quiet in the tropics with no areas of interest right now. The caribbean satellite does show a lot of convection in the Western Caribbean which is elongated and disorganized. It is not expected to develop.  There is another wave coming off the coast of Africa this morning, but that is also not expected to develop.

As we head into October, the climatology of where storms form changes a bit.  Instead of the Cape Verde storms, they tend to form a little closer to the US. The Western Atlantic, Western Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico are favored spots for development. Since 1950 at least 8 October hurricane have hit the sate of Florida including of course Hurricane Wilma on October 24, of 2005. Also the last major hurricane to hit Tampa was in October of 1921. So while the numbers of storms begin to decrease, it’s not time to completely let our guard down.