MyFoxHurricane.com blog

Tracking Invest 98L along with remains of Fred

Posted by Jim Weber under Daily updates

For the past week we have been watching the remnants of once Hurricane Fred moving across the Atlantic. The remains are now approaching the Bahamas and for a time had a decent amount of thunderstorm activity with it. This afternoon the activity has diminished considerably. The Hurricane Hunter was scheduled to fly out to this system this afternoon, but because of the lack of convection the flight has been cancelled.

This area will continue towards the west and most computer models move it towards the northwest on Monday and towards the Carolinas. It will not bring much more than an increase in showers along the coast as it approaches land. Further out into the tropics is a large tropical wave that has been designated as Invest 98L. This wave shows slow signs of organization.

The system still lacks a center of convection and dry air just to the north looks like it may be interfering with this system and not allowing it to pull in more tropical moisture. The wind shear in the area is still low and is expected to stay low over the next 3 days according to the myfoxhurricane.com run WRF model which looks at Atlantic Wind Shear.

The QuikSCAT pass over this Invest this morning shows a center of circulation with winds around 30 mph. Further organization of this system over the next couple of days is possible and this could become a tropical depression early next week.

Tropical wave in Atlantic getting more organized.

Posted by Dave Osterberg under Daily updates

As of early Saturday morning the National Hurricane Center is giving this wave in the Atlantic a medium (30-50%) chance of development in the next 48 hours. It seems reasonable that this could at least become a depression since it looks like a low level center is developing. The one thing that the computer models are consistent with is turning this off to the northwest in a few days. This of course would keep it well north of the Leeward Islands and also well east of the lower 48.

Also the remnants of Fred continue to slowly slide towad the west. This overall could increase moisture for the SE US early next week.

Fridays Tropical Update

Posted by Dave Osterberg under Daily updates

Good Friday everyone. The tropics remain quiet and may stay that way right through the weekend. There are a couple of areas the Hurricane Center is watching, but in both instances they are giving the chances of development at less than 30%. The one the computer models want to develop is way out in the Atlantic. This morning some convection has fired up which you can see on the satellite.  It would have to sustain itself over the next couple of days to have a chance at all so we will monitor it through the weekend. Look at what two computer models do with it. The CMC and NGP both develop it and by 96 hours have it north of the islands.

Choi Wan, El Nino, and the Tropical Atlantic.

Posted by Dave Osterberg under Daily updates

Here we are in the peak of the hurricane season and the storm we are watching is in the Western Pacific. Super Typhoon Choi-Wan is a powerful storm which yesterday reached 160mph winds with higher gusts. The satellite is picture is impressive but there are two bits of good news with this. The typhoon is expected to weaken, and alos miss Japan. Lets hope its right on both accounts.

The El nino continues this month, in fact some climate models are calling for a moderate to strong El Nino in the coming months. So far (knock on wood) it has suppressed the hurricane activity in the Atlantic, and the Eastern Pacific has gone bonkers. They are already on the latter m in their alphabet. The one thing that does concern me about a lingering El Nino into the winter months is the threat of severe weather. Everytime we get an El Nino there seems to be more severe weather with cold fronts dropping dwon from the north. That will be something we have to watch closely in the upcoming months.

In the tropical Atlantic, there are many areas of cloudiness, but none are well organized. Some computer models want to develop a wave off the ocast of Africa several days from now, but we will wait and see.

Activity may heat up later this week in the tropics.

Posted by Dave Osterberg under Daily updates

Wow, I am amazed that this is the third week of September and we aren’t tracking any storms out there. Not that I’m complaining, but I am amazed. There are however a couple of potentials to watch. If you notice off to the east of the Bahamas, there is a trough with some convection associated with it. Sometimes areas like this can develop over time, and indeed there are a couple of computer models which want to do just that. If indeed that does happen, whatever forms will move to the northeast and most likely stay out to sea. The GFS model also wants to develop another wave of low pressure coming off the coast of Africa late this week. It’s something to monitor, but hey cross your fingers, the later it gets in the season the cooler water will start to get.  

Quiet Tropics - Remnants of Fred

Posted by Jim Weber under Daily updates

One year ago today Hurricane Ike made landfall in Texas as a category 2 storm. This system caused extensive damage along the Texas coast and moved up toward Indiana and Ohio causing wind damage all the way into the Ohio valley.

Tropical Depression Fred was classified as a remnant low yesterday at 5pm. All of the deep convection was sheared from this system along with dry air filtering into the system. The rest of the tropics remains quiet.

The wide view over the Atlantic shows a small flare up of convection with the swirl that associated with what is left over from Fred. This is still removed from the center and the system is still experiencing southerly wind shear. A tropical wave has moved off the coast of Africa, but shows no signs of any organization. Low pressure continues in the western Gulf of Mexico. This is not tropical related, but will continue to keep the Gulf unsettled over the next couple of days.

A close up view of the remnants of Fred shows the area of convection north of the center of circulation, but the system continues to show no signs of redevelopment.

The GFS model shows Fred continuing to move to the west as a remnant and by Saturday morning will be approaching the southeastern Bahamas. Two move waves will be in the eastern Atlantic with the GFS model suggesting the second wave could show more organization.

Despite the remnants of Fred moving over the Bahamas over the weekend, the effects will be minimal. The WRF model shows very little convection associated with this system as it moves to the west.

10 NHC Fun Facts/Tropics Tranquil

Posted by Andy Johnson under Daily updates

Here is a list of 10 things you may not have known about the National Hurricane Center:

1.   In 1898, President William McKinley ordered the Weather Bureau, now
called the National Weather Service, to establish a hurricane warning
network.
2.   It was officially designated the National Hurricane Center in
1966.
3.   Today, it’s the main forecast center for storms that originate over
the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, the Gulf of Mexico, and the Eastern North Pacific Ocean.
4.   The center is located at Florida International University in Miami
and is designed to withstand up to 130-mph winds without damage.
5.   The center began naming tropical storms and hurricanes with the phonetic alpabet in 1950, but some meteorologists in the 19th century were informally naming storms.
6.   The World Meteorological Organization, a specialized agency of the
United Nations, selects the hurricane names and maintains an annual
list.
The organization alternates men’s and women’s names in English, Spanish and French in alphabetical order.�
Names are used on a six-year rotation, and the most devastating storms
have their names retired.
7.   The National Hurricane Center issues a watch for areas where a
hurricane could hit in about 36 hours or less.
8.   When winds of 74 mph are expected in 24 hours or less, the center
issues a hurricane warning.
9.   Bill Read, a longtime meteorologist from Texas, is currently the
director of the National Hurricane Center.
10.   The center cites the Galveston hurricane in 1900 as the deadliest
weather disaster in U.S. history.   An estimated 8,000 people died in
the storm.
Sources:
National Weather Service, Miami - South Florida Forecast Office
National Hurricane Center & US News

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Fred was downgraded from a tropical depression to a remnant low yesterday.  The McIDAS visible satellite image below still shows a swirl of low level clouds with Fred. Ironically, after Fred was downgraded it appears that some convection has reformed to the north of the center of circulation.  The tropical wave that emerged off of Africa two days ago continues to move westward causing thunderstorms in the Cape Verde Islands. However, the wave remains disorganized with two areas of convection but not a clearly defined central core.

The images below show the current and forecast wind shear in the tropical Atlantic. There is not quite as much shear over Fred today than there was yesterday. The highest shear area is further to the north near the Canary Islands.  Over the next few days, the remnants of Fred will move into an area of less shear. The same is the case for the next tropical wave.

Wind Shear 8AM September 13, 2009

Forecast Wind Shear for Tuesday, September 15, 2009

Going out further in time, the GFS model shows the remnants of Fred as an open wave north of the Virgin Islands by next Friday morning. A series of three tropical waves will be moving off of the coast of Africa into the eastern Atlantic. The GFS model seems to have overdeveloped some of these waves too early in recent runs. There is a possibility, however, of at least one of these waves developing into a tropical depression over the next week.

In addition to the activity in the eastern Atlantic, the enhanced infrared satellite picture below shows a non-tropical off of the coast of New England. It had produced gusty winds in New York on September 11 but it is now moving further out to sea. An upper level low over Texas and Louisiana and a stationary front along the north Gulf coast is causing widespread thunderstorm activity. There is a surface low near the upper Texas coast but the low is moving north which will put the center inland over time.

Last advisory issued on Fred

Posted by Jim Weber under Daily updates

The last advisory was issued on Tropical Depression Fred at 5pm on Saturday. Fred had been struggling with dry air intrusion and high wind shear. Just 3 days ago Fred was an impressive hurricane getting up to category 3 status with winds of 120mph. He became the 2nd major hurricane of the season. After becoming a category 3 storm wind shear began to increase from the southwest and quickly began to weaken the storm.

The last advisory shows Fred in the eastern Atlantic and nearly stationary. Models indicate that the remnants will start to move more towards the west or northwest over the next couple of days, but still should be not threat to any land mass.

The visible satellite image over Fred this afternoon shows the center completely void of any deep convection and what convection there is has been sheared to the the northeast.  With the forecasted windshear to remain high over the next few days it looks like little chance that Fred will regain any convection around the center.

The above image shows the areas of higher shear in the Atlantic which have been fairly persistent all season due to el Nino. Fred had a short time with low shear during the middle of the week but since then the southwesterly shear has continued to increase.

By Monday the above image shows the shear beginning to relax some over the remnants of Fred but conditions will still not be very favorable for any development with moderate wind shear in the area. At the same time the next tropical wave will move out into the Atlantic but at this point conditions do not look much better for that wave to develop than what Fred met on his journey.

Across the rest of the Atlantic the Caribbean is quiet with a large area of drier air centered over the Atlantic. The Gulf of Mexico is full of activity but this is being caused by a upper level low that is spinning over Texas and pulling moisture up from the Gulf of Mexico. This is not a tropical system but will continue to bring heavy rains over Florida on Sunday.

Fred Fizzles

Posted by Andy Johnson under Daily updates

Fred started off with a bang becoming the 3rd hurricane to reach Category 3 or above east of 35° longitude since the satellite era (before the 1960’s we might have missed strong storms in this area off of Africa). However, as we have seen with so many storms this year wind shear has taken its toll on Fred’s circulation. On September 9, 2009 before the shear started (see the visible image below) Fred had a distinctive eye, symmetrically curved bands and an identifiable Central Dense Overcast (CDO). The second image below taken today (September 12, 2009) shows a major changes in Fred’s structure. There has been dry air intrusion from the SW and shearing has removed the convection away from the center, leaving just a swirl of low and mid-level clouds. It is very rare once all convection has been sheared from the center of a tropical cyclone for it to regain its previous intensity. The overall diameter of Fred has also shrunk over the last few days.

McIDAS visible image September 9, 2009

McIDAS visible image September 12, 2009

The two images below show the current and forecast wind shear in the tropical Atlantic. Moderate to high shear is occurring over Fred and will continue near and north of Fred for the next few days. If Fred can maintain any circulation, shear will relax about 3 days out but it is doubtful that any significant weather with Fred would last that long. The tropical wave emerging off of Africa is sandwiched in between 2 shear areas, so some slow development is possible over the next few days.

Wind Shear September 12, 2009

Forecast Wind Shear September 14, 2009

The longer range models going out to next week still hold onto a circulation with Fred as late as September 17 to the east of Bermuda. The GFS model also shows a broad area of low pressure by next Thursday associated with the current wave moving off of Africa .

The Mercator projection Infrared enhanced satellite image below shows a few other systems that bear watching. An area of low pressure in the upper atmosphere in the Gulf is causing a large area of rain from Florida to Texas. A non-tropical low over SE Pennsylvania is causing gusty winds along the mid-Atlantic up to New England. Since this is a cold core system, no tropical development is likely even though the system is causing strong winds and some minor coastal flooding.

Will Fred slowly fizzle?

Posted by Andy Johnson under Daily updates

The sequence of the three visible satellite images shown below show the deterioration in the structure of Hurricane Fred over the last few days. The first image taken September 9, 2009 shows a symmetrical system. The image taken September 10, 2009 shows a system being sheared and the extent of the Central Dense Overcast (CDO) is being eroded on the southwest side due to southwesterly shear. The third image taken September 11, 2009 shows the continued effect of southwesterly shear on Hurricane Fred. The structure is not symmetrical. The feeder band to the ITCZ is becoming diffuse and the cirrus outflow is only seen in the northeastern quadrant. NHC feels that further weakening is to be expected and by the time Fred is forced westward a few days from now, he will just be a remnant low. Some of the very long range models (10-12 days) show a remnant low or perhaps a tropical wave approaching South Florida from the remains of Fred. However, Fred may not survive the trek across the Atlantic.

McIDAS visible satellite image September 9, 2009

McIDAS visible satellite image September 10, 2009

McIDAS visible satellite image September 11, 2009

The current and forecast wind shear products shown below indicate that the shear over Fred will continue for the next few days. However, shear will relax in a few days. By then, the circulation of Fred may have been so disrupted that he may just be an area of thunderstorms.

Wind shear 2PM September 11, 2009

Wind shear forecast for 2PM September 14, 2009

The GFS model shown below for Thursday, September 17, 2009 is still picking up a remnant circulation of Fred northeast of the Lesser Antilles. A strong ridge (red and orange areas) to the north of Fred may prevent it from recurving and will force the remaining circulation westward. The GFS is also showing closed isobars around 2 other systems in the Atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles by September 17, 2009.

The Mercator projection enhanced infrared satellite image below shows some other areas to watch in the tropics. A non-tropical low is causing gales, heavy rain and flooding near the Jersey shore. An upper low in the Gulf could build down to the surface over the next few days. A concentrated area of heavy convection has formed in the Western Caribbean.