MyFoxHurricane.com blog

Watching Gale Center in Atlantic

Posted by Jim Weber under Daily updates

The Tropical Atlantic continues very quiet and as we head into the final month of the hurricane season the activity is not expected to change. There are a couple of weak tropical waves moving towards the west but as has been the common theme all season westerly shear continues strong.

A close up view shows a low center, but this system is currently non-tropical (cold core). It is possible for this system to gain some sub-tropical characteristics over the next day or two. With the current location of this system and the models indicating its track to stay out over open waters the exact definition of this system is only a matter of symantecs as it will have no affect on any land.

The 12Z WRF model run over the Tropical Atlantic shows the ridge to the north of the low weakening early next week and allowing this low to move to the north.

Past Octobers not quite so quiet

Posted by Andy Johnson under Daily updates

This has been a weaker than normal hurricane season. Even though the peak of hurricane season occurs in August and September, west central Florida can experience late and early season tropical systems. This is because of our unique geographical position on the west coast of the peninsula. In order to get a direct strike by a major hurricane, the most probable path would be for a system to develop in the western Caribbean, then move through the Yucatan Channel missing both Cuba and the Yucatan and then recurving to the northeast. This indeed was what happened on October 25, 1921 shown in the Figure below. Since landfall was in Tarpon Springs a high storm surge of 10.5′ above sea level was forced into Tampa Bay. Remember that Davis Islands, Harbor Island, Culbreath Isles and Beach Park Isles did not exist in their present form in 1921. Those subdivisions were just marshy areas mostly covered by water at high tide. A 10.5 storm surge would inundate all of the those areas today.

We are headed into the last month of the official hurricane season which ends on November 30. In many years, no named hurricanes are recorded in November. The latest date that a hurricane hit the United States was November 30, 1925. Ironically, it struck near Bradenton, FL.

Tropical Season Winding down

Posted by Andy Johnson under Daily updates

The upper level disturbance that was over the Bahamas yesterday still shows evidence of a weak circulation but the rotation is in the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere. A surface low appears to be forming near the east coast of Florida offshore of Vero Beach. The low is not tropical in nature and is attached to a stationary front. The WRF model moves the low northward over the next few day but keeps it as a baroclinic low. Tropical systems are barotropic not baroclinic.

The upper level in the Bahamas is causing a flare-up of convection in the central Caribbean as a weak tropical wave moves westward. However, the shear from the upper TUTT low will keep the wave from developing. Convection has increased in the central tropical Atlantic midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Shear is still high there so no intensification is forecast.

Water temperatures remain very warm in the Caribbean and SW Atlantic with a water temperature of 91 still being reported near San Juan, Puerto Rico. But, as we have seen all season, warm water temperature is just one of many ingredients that must combine to allow tropical development. The continued El Nino is still causing shear in the Caribbean.

Tropical Storm Neki is WNW of the Hawaiian Islands but is giving them a wide berth. Neki has been nearly stationary but is forecast to regain northward movement and move into the open central Pacific.

Bahama disturbance remains weak

Posted by Andy Johnson under Daily updates

A weak inverted trough at the surface continues to show up at the surface over the western Bahamas. There is not much deep convection. Most of the rain is in curved bands of light showers that are moving into South Florida. The main rotation is higher in the atmosphere in association with a Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) low. A weak cold front  moving eastward into central Florida will cause the low to recurve to the North. Because of its close proximity to land and the fact that it will be absorbed into the approaching cold front over the next few next, I do not expect development of this system into a tropical storm. The Hurricane Center is giving Invest 95L a 30% chance of development into a tropical depression. Convection has flared up in the Central Caribbean. Once again shear is fairly high there and should retard development even though water temperatures are above normal for this time of year in the Caribbean (91 degrees near San Juan).

Lots of tropical moisture, but nothing organized.

Posted by Dave Osterberg under Daily updates

As you can see by the satellite picture, there is tropical moisture from the Bahamas to near Jamaica. Nothing is organized, and the computer models are very wishy washy about anything significant developing. One thing to point out is that a cold front which is likely to stall near us, may pull some of this moisture north and into the area next week. This area still bears watching, and we will do that for you over the weekend. The National Hurricane Center gives these areas a less than 30% chance of development.

94L no better organized.

Posted by Dave Osterberg under Daily updates

Since yesterday morning the convection in the 94L invest has come and go. The Hurricane Center is keeping an eye on this area and has given it a low (less than 30%) chance of development. If something was to become of this area it would likely be slow to do so. But on the otherhand the water temps are warm and the the oceanic heat content is very high as well. That means if something was to develop, it would have a lot of energy to work with. The puzzling thing is that of course the computer models are beginning to drop the notion of anything developing. The European, Canadian, and the NOGAPS now want to keep it undeveloped. The GFS still wants to develop it. This is all in sharp contrast to yesterday where almost every global model wanted to spin something up. Is this a trend, or just a bad model run. The good thing is if something does develop it won’t sneak up on us, we will have plenty of time to watch it. So stay tuned.

Invest 94L in the western Caribbean

Posted by Paul Dellegatto under Daily updates

Persistent clouds and showers over the Western Carribean Sea, a few hundred miles east of the Nicaraguan coast, show no signs of development. There are no indications of a low level circulation, but there are some signs that one may be trying to develop in the mid layers of the atmosphere. The Western Caribbean is a prime area for development late in the season. All of the ingredients are in place for some slow development,  including deep tropical moisture, warm sea surface temperatures, and moderate shear. The one negative factor is that the eventual center of circulation will be near or over land for the next few days. Only the European model shows an eventual turn to Cuba and south Florida. Development, if any, will be very slow. In all likelihood, we will have plenty of time to watch and monitor the area for development.

Tropical disturbance in the Western Caribbean.

Posted by Dave Osterberg under Daily updates

After and extended length of quiet in the tropics, it looks like some activity is developing in the Western Caribbean. The satellite is showing a lot of  clouds, but the overall system is still very disorganized. As we have stated in past blogs, if something was to form in the tropics this time of year, this is one of the favored spots. The convection in this area is expected to linger for days and the current wind shear is supposed to relax a bit. This may lead to some development in this area late this week and into the weekend.

There are many computer models on board with this theory. But of course the problem is the all disagree on timing and strength of a developing system.  The CMC and GFS both show a system drifting north several days down the road. The problem is that if anything does develop and drift north it would run into an area with a lot of high oceanic heat content, which could lead to intensification. It is way to early to speculate if and when something will form, or where, so we will keep you updated.

Quiet tropics…will it last?

Posted by Jim Weber under Daily updates

The description of the tropics all season with little exception has been quiet. The el Nino has taken care of any tropical systems trying to develop. The story again today is quiet weather through the entire tropics. There is one weak tropical wave moving west towards the Caribbean. It is expected to bring locally heavy rains across the Lesser Antilles over the next 24 hours.

The ITCZ has shown clusters of thunderstorms through out the day but neither one of these areas shows any signs of organization. Water Vapor imagery shows a large are of dry air extending from southern Florida all the way into the eastern Atlantic. There is also evidence of strong southwesterly shear through this region.

Sunday’s Tropical Update

Posted by Jim Weber under Daily updates

The remnants of once Tropical Storm Henri are bring storms across eastern Cuba this afternoon. This disturbance continues to move towards the west and shows no signs of organizing as it continues to move to the west and into the northern Caribbean on Monday.

Around the rest of the tropics a weak tropical wave continues in the central Atlantic which is being sheared and remains very disorganized. The ITCZ is very quiet with just a small area of scattered showers of the coast of Africa.

The Gulf of Mexico has some convection in the western Gulf which is associated with a cold front that has stalled across the northern Gulf. This convection will lift to the north and into the southeast over the next 24 hours.