MyFoxHurricane.com blog

Tropical disturbance in the Western Caribbean.

Posted by Dave Osterberg under Daily updates

After and extended length of quiet in the tropics, it looks like some activity is developing in the Western Caribbean. The satellite is showing a lot of  clouds, but the overall system is still very disorganized. As we have stated in past blogs, if something was to form in the tropics this time of year, this is one of the favored spots. The convection in this area is expected to linger for days and the current wind shear is supposed to relax a bit. This may lead to some development in this area late this week and into the weekend.

There are many computer models on board with this theory. But of course the problem is the all disagree on timing and strength of a developing system.  The CMC and GFS both show a system drifting north several days down the road. The problem is that if anything does develop and drift north it would run into an area with a lot of high oceanic heat content, which could lead to intensification. It is way to early to speculate if and when something will form, or where, so we will keep you updated.