MyFoxHurricane.com blog

94L no better organized.

Posted by Dave Osterberg under Daily updates

Since yesterday morning the convection in the 94L invest has come and go. The Hurricane Center is keeping an eye on this area and has given it a low (less than 30%) chance of development. If something was to become of this area it would likely be slow to do so. But on the otherhand the water temps are warm and the the oceanic heat content is very high as well. That means if something was to develop, it would have a lot of energy to work with. The puzzling thing is that of course the computer models are beginning to drop the notion of anything developing. The European, Canadian, and the NOGAPS now want to keep it undeveloped. The GFS still wants to develop it. This is all in sharp contrast to yesterday where almost every global model wanted to spin something up. Is this a trend, or just a bad model run. The good thing is if something does develop it won’t sneak up on us, we will have plenty of time to watch it. So stay tuned.