MyFoxHurricane.com blog

Saturday’s Tropical Update

Posted by Jim Weber under Daily updates

Tropical Storm Henri dissipated about as quickly as he formed. The story all season has been wind shear. The entire tropical Atlantic is quiet once again with just a couple of weak tropical waves that appear to show no signs of organization at this time.

The myfoxhurricane.com WRF model run indicates a ridge axis through the atlantic centered around 20°N with another high centered off the east coast of Florida. This high off the coast of Florida has been responsible for the heatwave across Florida the past week. This will continue to slowly shift towards the east and allow temperatures in Florida to cool some by next weekend. During this time a couple of weak tropical waves will continue to move westward with no signs of strengthening.

During the month of October our focus shifts to the Gulf of Mexico and to the western Atlantic for typical locations of tropical development. This is because we begin to see more frontal activity pushing further south and stalling along the the Gulf Coast and this provides a means for disturbances to form along old frontal boundaries and moved northeast.

Henri falling apart/tropical update.

Posted by Dave Osterberg under Daily updates

This morning Tropical Depression Henri is struggling. Once again thanks to El Nino, the winds shear has so far done it in. There is very little convection left to the storm, mainly north east of the center. In fact the very small circulation of the storm is very hard to find. This will likely be downgraded to a remnant low by the Hurricane Center later today.  The remains will have to be watched because as it drifts closer and closer to Hispaniola, they could receive somje heavy rains. I have to say overall the computer models have been consistent with this system. None of them have developed Henri and all continue to dissipate it later today.

Another area the Hurricane Center is watching is SE of Henri. This tropical wave is very close to South America and currently they are giving this a low 30% chance or less of developing. As with Henri, at this point the computer models aren’t developing this wave.

Henri a little stronger, but will it last?

Posted by Dave Osterberg under Daily updates

This morning there is a lot of convection associated with Tropical Storm Henri. The center though is partially exposed on the western side of that deep convection due to some upper level shearing. This of course is not conducive for strengthening. Nonetheless winds are around 50mph this morning. The strong wind shear (20-25kts) is expected to continue over the next 24-26 hours. Then the storm is expected to get sheared from another direction. The bottom line is that this storm may not survive another couple of day. The computer models are forecasting Henri to dissipate in a couple of days, as does the official National Hurricane Center forecast.  If for some reason this storm does make it through all that shear, then conditions would become more favorable for development by the weekend.

Tropical Storm Henri forms in Atlantic

Posted by Jim Weber under Daily updates

The tropical wave we have been watching in the Atlantic has been experiencing southwesterly shear over the past several days. Despite the shear this wave managed to organize enough to produce a closed low circulation and become Tropical Storm Henri (pronounced ahn-REE).

The SW wind shear continues around 20 knots with dry air to the north of this system along with an old frontal boundary which should continue pull this system towards the NW. The western side of this storm is nearly complete void of any convection because of this shear which is expected to continue over the next couple of days.

The myfoxhurricane.com Tropical WRF model produces a shear analysis product and overlays surface features on it so we can better visualize where the areas of high and low shear in relationship to storms. The image below is valid on Thursday which shows by that point, if Henri can survive, the shear will begin to decrease. The key is that over the next couple of days the shear will continue which should keep this system from gaining too much strength. It is important to not that this system has developed in a high shear environment so it shows it is a fighter.

The tropical WRF model run indicates Henri to the east of the Lesser Antillies with another wave further to the east.

The WRF model keeps the ridge to the north which keeps this system moving W or WNW to the north of Puerto Rico. Indications in the WRF model also suggest this storm will weaken to  a depression by Thursday. The tropical wave to the east will continue to move west and the WRF model shows this system becoming better organized and possibly becoming a depression or weak tropical storm.

Grace is gone, could Henri be next?

Posted by Dave Osterberg under Daily updates

Wow, talk about a short lived storm.  I came in this morning and Grace was already fizzled. It was moving over cold water so it really had no chance. Climatologically, we see another uptick in storms near the middle of October so don’t think the season is over yet.

In fact the Hurricane Center is giving this area of convection east of the islands a moderate 30-50% chance of development over the next 48 hours. There is a lot of convection this morning, but the overall structure of this system is not great. Most of the computer models do not develop this, but it is something we will continue to monitor.

Tropical Storm Grace forms, way way out into Atlantic

Posted by Dave Osterberg under Daily updates

Our 7th named storm of the year Grace formed several hundred miles northeast of the Azores. Yes it’s actually closer to Spain and Portugal than it is to the US. By looking at the satellite you can see it is developing an eye. It is a very small storm in diameter packing with it 70mph winds.  This will likely be no threat to land as it is anticipated to fizzle over the next couple of days.

Also in the Atlantic, a tropical wave has been given a less than 30% chance of development as it continues to move WNW toward the islands over the next few days. Most computer models do not develop this wave.

Atlantic wave and Typhoon heading towards Japan

Posted by Jim Weber under Daily updates

A large tropical wave in the Atlantic has shown more convection associated with it for a time today. This wave still remains disorganized and moderate wind shear continues over this system. However models continue to indicate the possibility of very slow organization over the next several days.

Along with that are two weaker tropical waves in the Caribbean. These wave continue to bring rains across the Caribbean and show no signs of organizing.

A close up visible view shows areas of convection, but still no distinct low level circulation. Westerly wind shear continues in this region and the myfoxhurricane.com Tropical WRF model run indicates shear will continue but also indicates this system may hold it own over the next few days.

Elsewhere, the Philippines was hard hit by Typhoon Parma which has claimed 17 lives and has now weakened to a tropical storm. At the same time Super Typhoon Melor has winds of 160 mph and is expected to head NW and re-curve just off the coast of southern Japan by mid-week.

Saturday’s Tropical Update

Posted by Jim Weber under Daily updates

The tropics remain very quiet with only a couple of tropical waves in the eastern Atlantic.

The Caribbean and the Gulf are mostly clear with only a disorganize area of storms in the southern Caribbean. Off the east coast of the U.S. is an old frontal boundary that has been producing showers from the Bahamas northward towards New England. This is non-tropical and shows no signs of developing anything tropical at this time.

The GFS model indicates the two tropical waves in the Atlantic on Saturday afternoon.

By next week the Bermuda high will be displaced and a ridge will build in over Florida bringing warming conditions across the southeast.  The second of the tropical waves will be moving through the Lesser Antilles. This wave continues to show no signs of strengthening and should just bring increased rain chances to the Caribbean.

The myfoxhurricane.com Tropical WRF model run indicates strong shear continuing through the Atlantic which week inhibit any tropical formation.