MyFoxHurricane.com blog

Ida weakening, making a path toward the Northern Gulf Coast.

Posted by Dave Osterberg under Daily updates

Ida is finding that the Gulf of Mexico is not as friendly as the Western Caribbean. 30+ knots of winds shear and lower water temps are beginning to take their toll on Ida. As of 5AM winds speeds have dropped to a consertative 90mph. It is possible that it may already be weaker than that.  I am glad this is November, because if this was August, we would be looking at a much more dangerous situation. I am not downplaying Ida, after all it will likely make landfall as a tropical storm, but if this was late summer it could have been a much bigger scenario. Ida will continue to move NNW over the next 24 hours and bring the center onshore early tomorrow morning along the Northern Gulf Coast. It looks like Ida will make landfall near the Alabama Florida border. This is an area that has seen many storms in years past. Also over the next 24 hours, Ida will begin to transform in an extratropical storm meaning it will lost its tropical characteristics. That will help the strongest winds spread out away from the center so you might see a larger area experience tropical storm force winds.  I still think the overall effects will be minimal. Without a doubt there will be heavy rain and very high wind gusts. Beach erosion will likely occur especially over the barrier islands but wind damage should be minimal. Ida should be making landfall as the tide is coming out along the Northern Gulf coast, so that will help.  For the rest of the Eastern Gulf, cloudy and windy conditions can be expected.

Hurricane Ida winds 105, accelerating

Posted by Jim Weber under Daily updates

Hurricane Ida has made its way into the southern Gulf of Mexico. Buoy reports across the Gulf have been increasing to tropical storm force. There is still about a 18-24 hour period that Ida will have over warm waters, then it will begin its journey over cooling waters.

There is an upper level trough  over Texas and the ridge over the south east centered just off the coast of Geogia. This trough/ridge will continue to shift towards the east with Ida moving in between these features. The exact progress of the trough to the east will determine how far Ida stays off the west coast of Florida.

The WRF model shows Ida moving further west indicating a slower advancing trough which will move Ida closer to Louisiana.

The model initialized the storm further to the west which means leads me to want to lean towards a solution more towards the east. This would also indicate more rain bands approaching the west coast of Florida late Monday and during the day on Tuesday.

The GFDL model which has a very good track record initialized the model well in the southern Gulf of Mexico.

It depicts a hurricane which will maintain its strength over the next 24 hours and then quickly become extra-tropical over the northern Gulf of Mexico and spreading rain bands over north Florida and southern Georgia creating flooding conditions.

Ida regains hurricane strength/U.S. Watches issued

Posted by Andy Johnson under Daily updates

Ida regained hurricane strength at 11:15 PM last night and caused strong winds over the Yucatan Peninsula this morning. A hurricane watch was issued at 10 AM from Grand Isle, LA to the MS/AL border. The 1AM advisory stated that the winds had increased to 90 MPH. One of the reasons for the upgrade was data from reconnaissance aircraft monitoring the hurricane. The image below shows the flight path. All along the way, reading are taken every 30 seconds from an instrument on the aircraft called the stepped frequency microwave radiometer (SFMR). The radiometer measure energy backscattered from the ocean surface to provide an estimate of surface sustained wind speeds. Each of the barbs in the image below shows that data from the SFMR. In addition, data from dropsondes is available also. The data from one of the points is magnified in the center of the image. The data shows that the maximum flight level wind was 102.3 MPH and the maximum surface wind was 90.8 MPH. Hurricane hunter aircraft provide we a plethora of information that we just cannot get from radar and satellite observations alone. I believe it was the point that I have identified below that was responsible for the upgrade of sustained winds to 90 MPH.

At one point last night, the hurricane jogged a bit to the west. However, this morning I am seeing a return to a more northerly track. The Cancun radar image belows shows that the center of circulation is passing about midway between Cuba and the Yucatan peninsula. This will allow Ida to maintain her intensity since the center will not be moving over land. If the northward trend continues, the official track will have to be adjusted more to the east.

The image below shows the tropical cyclone heat potential. As I pointed out in my blog yesterday the highest heat potential in the entire Atlantic basin is in the NW Caribbean Sea. I felt yesterday that since Ida was going to be moving over this huge source of energy, she would regain hurricane status. This is what indeed happenened. The image below also shows that the heat potential drops off significantly in the cooler Gulf of Mexico.

The image below shows the winds shear forecast at 48 hours from model run time. The strong shear which has been present for so long in the Gulf is expected to weaken. This will allow Ida to hold on to some of her strength for a while before weakening in the cooler waters of the central Gulf.

It is has been shown in recent years that a phenomenon known as “overshooting tops” is associated with intensification of hurricanes. The image below is a visible satellite image showing the overshooting top just north of the center of circulation. Air is accelerated as it comes into the center of the hurricane by these high cloud tops. As air enters it rises rapidly causing the higher cloud tops. This added vertical motion introduces energy to the hurricane’s core, which, in turn, strengthens the horizontal circulation.

Ida almost a hurricane

Posted by Jim Weber under Daily updates

Ida has been gaining strength today and is almost back up to hurricane status. The waters around the Yucatan are still running in the mid 80s which is warm enough to support intensification through the overnight hours. This looks like it will become a hurricane later tonight.

The visible satellite this afternoon has been showing a large area of convection surrounding the center with more convection on the NE and E side of the storm.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the Yucatan peninsula from Tulum to Cabo Catoche. There is also a Tropical Storm warning in effect for Grand Cayman Island.

A large scale trough is located over western Texas and New Mexico which will move into the Western Gulf of Mexico with a surface front early next week. This will help to draw Ida up to the north and models indicate it could make its way into the northern Gulf of Mexico where the water temperatures are in the upper 70s. At this point Ida will loose its tropical characteristics as it is absorbed into the cold front. The question will remain exactly where all the moisture will go.

Many of the computer models suggest the extratropical low will ride along the frontal boundary to the east as the front sinks to the south. This is what is depicted in the models such as the GFDL which shows a southeast track over the state next week. This is the remnants moving over the state bringing rain as the front moves down and brings somewhat cooler air for the end of next week.

Ida continues to stregthen

Posted by Andy Johnson under Daily updates

Ida regained tropical storm strength early this morning at 1:30 AM. The satellite presentation has continued to look more and more impressive during the morning hours. Ida has a history of rapid intensification. Remember that it went from a tropical depression up to a hurricane in just 24 hours. Winds shear has been fairly low so far and the storm is moving into an area with the highest water heat content in the entire Atlantic basin including the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea. In fact, the heat content in the NW  Caribbean is higher now than it was in November of the record breaking 2005 hurricane season. It is not only the temperature of the surface water but how deep the warm water goes that determines the potential energy of a tropical cyclone. The image below shows how deep (in meters) that the temperatures is greater than 79 degrees. The area in the NW Caribbean near the Yucatan has 79 degree water down to about 175 meters (574 ft.) which is very impressive for November. Ida will have a brief window of opportunity to intensify in this favorable environment today and Sunday before encountering less heat content in the Gulf, along with increasing vertical shear. The official NHC forecast does not bring Ida to hurricane strength but I feel there is a slight possibility of that happening tonight or Sunday when Ida will be passing over the high heat content areas.

The image below shows the tropical cyclone heat potential. The highest values lie in the path of Ida. The potential is even higher now than when Ida first became a hurricane off  of the coast of Nicaragua.

The enhanced infrared satellite image below shows a large area of heavy convection (red and magenta areas) than yesterday.

Water temperatures are above normal for this time of year with readings as high as 85 degrees in the Caribbean and even as far north as Key West.

Even though wind shear has been very strong in the Gulf, the latest models (shown below) show less shear over the Gulf about the time that Ida arrives. This might slow the weakening process somewhat in the Gulf.

tfh

Ida looking stronger

Posted by Andy Johnson under Daily updates

The convection around Ida has definitely increased this evening, which is an indication of strengthening. This is likely due to the fact the the circulation is now mostly over water and the water temperatures are very high for this time of year in the Caribbean. In addition, the warm water is unusually deep for this time of year. The image below shows the tropical cyclone heat potential. The highest potential for intensification is in the red area. Ida has a narrow window of opportunity over the next 2 days to take advantage of this deep warm water. Afterwards, the as she moves into the Gulf of Mexico (See the 2nd image below), the heat potential decreases significantly.

The amount of convection (red areas) has increase in areal coverage since this morning (See Dave Osterberg’ s AM blog).  I expect I to reintensify to tropical storm strength by Saturday morning.

The pressure gradient between strong high pressure centered near over the Carolinas and lower pressure with Ida is causing a large area of strong winds well outside of the actual circulation of Ida. As Ida transitions to an extropical storm on Tuesday and Wednesday, the size of the wind field will likely increase.

The image below shows the forecast wind shear for early Monday morning. Wind shear will be weakening compared to what it is now in the Gulf of Mexico. However, it will strong enough to inhibit tropical development. As the same time Ida will begin to become extratropical, she will encounter more shear. Wind shear does not necessarily weaken an extratopical system. So, the bottom line is that winds could still be strong in Ida even after she transitions to an extratopical storm in the Gulf of Mexico.

Ida weaker, but could regenerate.

Posted by Dave Osterberg under Daily updates

As of early Friday morning Ida was barely a tropical depression after its trek over Central America.  The center of the system is getting ready to cross into Honduras and has basically made the half point over land. It will likely emerge back out over the Western Caribbean early tomorrow and that will be the key day. There is a good chance that once the center gets back out over the warm waters it could restrengthen. The harder question is how much? Obviously different computer models are saying different things, but they are all in agreement that tropical moisture will be in the Gulf next week. Once it reaches the Gulf, it will encounter cooler water temps and higher wind shear which could tear it apart.  Notice the computer models are taking this storm every which way but sideways so a lot will depend on the strength of this system when it reaches the Gulf and also the high pressure system that will be building in from the north. You see on the track models how some want to curve it back to the south. That is in response to the high building in so while it may be very difficult to say exactly how strong this system will be or where it may be in 4 days, we can say that at the very least remnants will be in the Gulf next week. Stay tuned.

Ida downgraded to Tropical Storm

Posted by Andy Johnson under Daily updates

At landfall, gale force winds only extended 20 miles to the south and 45 miles to the north of the center. As a result, the coastal city of Bluefields did not experience tropical storm force winds. The highest wind I saw at the Bluefields airport was 12 MPH. In addition, since Ida is a small storm the threat of torrential rains is reduced since she did not have enough time to develop a large envelope of convection.

Bluefields is not a stranger to hurricanes. Major hurricane Joan in 1988 destroyed the city. It was later rebuilt and today has a population of 45,000 people.

November hurricanes are somewhat rare. However, the only state that has been hit by November hurricanes since 1900 has been Florida. An unusual similarity exists between Ida and Hurricane Kate of 1985. Both Kate and Ida intensified from the first advisory to a hurricane in only 24 hours. This feat has only been matched by 6 other hurricanes. Humberto (2007) takes the award of fastest intensification, though: first advisory to hurricane strength in 14 1/4 hours. Both Kate and Ida formed in November. Kate hit the Florida panhandle as a category 2 hurricane. Let’s hope the similarities end there.

Even though the terrain is mountainous farther inland in Nicaragua and Honduras near the coast, the land is just gently rolling. If Ida moves as forecast, the center would not pass over high mountains before reaching the Caribbean north of Honduras. If Ida moves further west than forecast, the mountains there would likely destroy its circulation.

The enhanced infrared satellite presentation (see the image below)  this afternoon shows a clearly defined center over land (see the small dark circle).  Convection as indicated by the red areas has decreased significantly since landfall this morning and the heaviest convection remains near the Nicaragua coast east of the center of circulation.

Wind shear has been very light so far over the western Caribbean. The image below shows the 72 hour wind shear forecast. Values will still be low near the center of Ida but wind shear will be fairly high in the Gulf  and Florida (see the red areas). Some longer range models show a slight relaxation in the shear in the Gulf by early next week.

The image below shows the output of the Global Forcast System (GFS) model valid Wednesday at 8:00 AM. The GFS model has been consistent in showing Ida holding on to her circulation all the way to the Gulf of Mexico. The new 12Z run today has been a little slower in the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame. The GFS brings the storm abeam of about the latitude of Naples and the longitude of Pensacola by early Tuesday. Then the GFS slows the system and actually loops back around and shows Ida going south slightly on Wednesday. If this were to play out, it reminds me of Hurricane Laurie in 1969. Laurie moved northward into the Gulf from the Caribbean, was blocked by strong high pressure and was forced southward. Laurie missed land and was the only Category 2 hurricane in the Gulf to not bring gale force winds to any adjacent land areas.

We will continue to monitor Ida. Remember that there is also the possibility that Ida will dissipate before reaching the Gulf.

Ida becomes a hurricane

Posted by Dave Osterberg under Daily updates

Since my first blog this morning, Ida has now become a hurricane with winds of 75mph near the center of the storm as it appraoches the coastline of Nicaragua. It is expected to make landfall sometime this morning and then begin to weaken. The major threat to Central America is without a doubt heavy rain and flooding.  And now to the million dollar question of what will happen from there.

For you savvy tropical watchers you may have already seen many of the computer models. Well some have it in the gulf as a tropical storm next week, some have it as a hurricane. Some have it in the Western Gulf, whereas another couple have it in the Eastern Gulf. I tell you all of this to say at this point it is too early to tell. The big question will be what is left of Ida when it heads back into the waters of the Caribbean this weekend. That will really tell the tale. You have to remember that it is November and overall the water temps in the Gulf are cooler. The wind shear is also higher in the Gulf than it is in the Western Caribbean. Combine those two with the effects of the Central American coastline and Ida would have its work cut out for it.

The path for this storm is much more up in the air.  A strong ridge of high pressure is forecast to settle in to the Eastern third of the US and that may help to steer Ida a little further toward the west. But a couple of the more reliable global models paint this high a little further to the east and a little weaker. Like I said earlier, once Ida leaves Central America and goes back out over the water many of these questions will be answered.. Stay tuned.

Ida a little stronger, battering Nicaragua

Posted by Dave Osterberg under Daily updates

This morning Ida is still a Tropical Storm, barely. Winds are close to 70mph near the center of the storm as it appraoches the coastline of Nicaragua. It is expected to make landfall sometime this morning and then begin to weaken. The major threat to Central America is without a doubt heavy rain and flooding.  And now to the million dollar question of what will happen from there.

For you savvy tropical watchers you may have already seen many of the computer models. Well some have it in the gulf as a tropical storm next week, some have it as a hurricane. Some have it in the Western Gulf, whereas another couple have it in the Eastern Gulf. I tell you all of this to say at this point it is too early to tell. The big question will be what is left of Ida when it heads back into the waters of the Caribbean this weekend. That will really tell the tale. You have to remember that it is November and overall the water temps in the Gulf are cooler. The wind shear is also higher in the Gulf than it is in the Western Caribbean. Combine those two with the effects of the Central American coastline and Ida would have its work cut out for it.

The path for this storm is much more up in the air.  A strong ridge of high pressure is forecast to settle in to the Eastern third of the US and that may help to steer Ida a little further toward the west. But a couple of the more reliable global models paint this high a little further to the east and a little weaker. Like I said earlier, once Ida leaves Central America and goes back out over the water many of these questions will be answered.. Stay tuned.