MyFoxHurricane.com blog

90L still disorganized, may develop next week.

Posted by Dave Osterberg under Daily updates

As of 5AM Friday morning, invest 90L was still very disorganized. By looking at the satellite, there are a few clusters of thunderstorms, but nothing to indicate any real organization. The Hurrican Center gives this system a low chance for organization over the next 48 hours. Some people have asked me about this map. The low, medium, or high chance for development is only in the next 48 hours. It does not indicate what may happen 5 days down the road. Speaking of down the road, many computer models do develop this in the long term. At this point, the computer models should be taken with a grain of salt. Bottom line, if you don’t have a certain fix on where the center is,  you can’t get a real good idea of exactly where it’s going. You can get a general idea, but not certain. So 90L could easily head north of the islands, and it could easily head south.  A look at a few of the computer models will tell us this story. The CMC, and the HWRF both develop this system, and the HWRF makes it a hurricane well north of the islands. But on the other hand, the European and Navy NOGAPS models take this system into the Caribbean. This difference of opinions is common with an invest, and I encourage everyone to keep checking back throughout the next week. Have a great weekend.