MyFoxHurricane.com blog

Nicole remnants flooding East coast

Posted by Sheena Parveen under Daily updates

The remnants of Tropical Storm Nicole are causing heavy flooding through parts of the East coast, sending heavy rain from North Carolina to Maine.  Some of this flooding may reach record totals for 5 day long rainfall.  This would be close to record flooding from Hurricane Floyd in 1999 for some areas. 

Coastal areas in North Carolina are already seeing close to 21 inches of rain, topping Hurricane Floyd’s rainfall.  This image below is from Carolina Beach in North Carolina on Thursday, September 30th.

The remnants of Nicole will continue to the NE, as it has been absorbed into a frontal boundary. 

More disturbed weather is present in the Caribbean, as well as East of the Lesser Antilles.  This new tropical wave in the Atlantic Ocean is now Invest 97L, and it’s about 800 miles East of the Windward Islands.

Computer models track the storm moving W/NW, then once the storm is North of the Caribbean there is a disagreement between some of the models.  Both the HWRF and the CMC take the storm North before it reaches the U.S., but the BAMM and BAMS both continue this storm West.  If the storm stays North of the Caribbean, it has a better chance of staying in the Atlantic Ocean.   Once there is a better spin on the storm, models will be able to track it better.  By the time Invest 97L nears the U.S., it should run into a cold front exiting the Southeast U.S., which in turn will keep the system away from the Southeast, but the timing of a front this far out is not certain.

Tropical Storm Nicole brings heavy rains

Posted by Jim Weber under Daily updates

Tropical Depression #16 was upgraded to Tropical Storm Nicole at 11 AM today. This system remains fairly disorganized with the strongest winds still well south of the center. The storm is now onshore over Cuba, but should move back over water later this afternoon.

The overall forecast thinking has not changed but the system has jogged a little further eastward and it now looks like it may not make landfall over south Florida. All of the tropical storm warnings for Florida have been dropped as the strongest winds will stay offshore.

Nicole will move towards the north and eventually dissipate as it becomes extra tropical and merges with a frontal boundary. This frontal boundary will help to pull Nicole northward and at the same time will draw much drier air over the state. The next several days will feature lower humidity and feel more like fall.

Tropical Storm “Nicole” poses little threat

Posted by Paul Dellegatto under Daily updates, MyFoxHurricane.com website

Tropical Depression sixteen was upgraded to Tropical Storm Nicole this morning based on a few surface observations showing sustained winds of around 40mph. Despite the upgrade, “”Nicole” poses little threat to Florida as the track has shifted east of the state and the strongest winds are well removed from the center.

Some peak wind gusts this morning.

Holguin (eastern Cuba): 34 kt
Guantanamo Bay (eastern Cuba): 26 kt
Nassau Airport (Bahamas): 41 kt
George Town (Bahamas): 27 kt
ship at 16°48′N 81°30′W: 35 kt

Rain has been heavy across south Florida and Cuba. Some of the heaviest rains have occurred in Jamaica which is located several hundred miles away from the center of the storm. We are receiving reports of flooding and homes being washed away on the island country. Heavy rain will continue to spread over the Bahamas.

As “Nicole” moves away from Florida she will become a non tropical low that will help to usher in slightly cooler but MUCH LESS HUMID weather across most of the state.  Temperatures will likely reach the 60s for lows in most areas in central Florida. Some computer models are trying to form another tropical low over the Caribbean over the weekend. We will continue to monitor the area for development.

“Nicole” may be soon to form. . .

Posted by Sheena Parveen under Daily updates

Computer models continue to pick up on a developing area of low pressure in the Western Caribbean over the next several days.   Clusters of showers and storms are present just East of the Yucatan Peninsula, and this is the area we will be watching.  Below is the GFS model for next Wednesday at 5pm, when the new tropical system may be approaching the state.  There is a good chance it may become our next named storm, “Nicole”.  We’ll compare it to the ECMWF and NOGAPS  models.

The above GFS model shows the strengthening area of low pressure (possibly “Nicole”) moving North through Cuba, then up along the Southwest coast of Florida.  Now we’ll look at the ECMWF model (European model) for next Saturday at 12pm. 

The ECMWF model above takes the area of low pressure across Florida from the SW coast, then out into the Atlantic.  Now we’ll look at the NOGAPS model below for Friday at 8am.

All models are agreeing on an area of low pressure developing and moving North.  They are also in better agreement now on what side of the state it may impact first.  Of course this forecast can change, but as we move into this next week, forecasting for this system will become more accurate.  Once the area of low pressure becomes stronger in the Caribbean, computer models should have an easier time forecasting it, since there will be cyclonic flow in place.  

**Hurricane preparedness is very important right now.  You and your family should have a plan in case of a hurricane or evacuation.  Go to the home page of myfoxhurricane.com and click on the “additional resources” tab to find out how you can make a plan and be prepared for the rest of hurricane season.**

Circled in yellow below, in the Western Caribbean Sea, is the newly formed area of low pressure that computer models are developing.  So far, this broad area of low pressure is very unorganized, and there is not an obvious cyclonic circulation yet.  Any system that does develop will be surrounded by very warm water temperatures (mid 80’s) and pretty favorable atmospheric conditions.  We were also tracking Tropical Depression Matthew, but now Matthew is a remnant area of low pressure over Southern Mexico.  It’s still expected to drop very heavy rains, ranging anywhere from 10 to 20 inches!  This  will most likely spark flash floods and lead to mudslides.

Lisa is still in the Atlantic Ocean by Africa’s West coast, but it is evident that Lisa is encountering higher wind shear.  The image below shows Lisa as it continues to weaken.  This system will soon dissipate over the Atlantic Ocean.

Lisa will continue to move on a Northerly path, into cooler waters and unfavorable atmospheric conditions.

A very close tropical set-up underway. . .

Posted by Sheena Parveen under Daily updates

A very close eye will be on the Caribbean over the next week as models are picking up on an area of low pressure forming.  This area of low pressure may either be from the remnants of Tropical Depression Matthew (once it further weakens over the Yucatan) or it could very well be a separate area of low pressure forming just in the wake of Matthew.  Models are very strong on forming this tropical system, then moving it North.  Below is the GFS model forecasting for Friday of next week.   Note that the GFS model is moving this developing system much faster than the others. 

The next model to look at is the ECMWF model, which is the European based model.  The forecast for the same time period is below.

Now we’ll look at the NOGAPS model.  The NOGAPS model is below for the same time frame as the previous two.

The bottom line is that there will be an area of low pressure developing and strengthening in the Caribbean, then it will most likely move North.  The question-and what the computer models are struggling to reach an agreement on-is “how far North will this new system go, and how will it impact Florida?”.    Right now, the system doesn’t seem to be approaching the state until the end of next week and into the weekend.  Forecasting so far out in time is difficult, but the one thing to notice in all 3 models is that they all pick up on a strengthening tropical system nearing the state.   Right now it is uncertain on how this tropical system will impact the state, and it becomes even more difficult as the system has not formed yet.  One main point to mention is that there currently is no low pressure area in the Caribbean.  This is certainly something we will continue to track and keep updated on.

Matthew is weakening as it moves over Central America dropping heavy rains.  Rainfall totals of 6 to 10 inches will be expected, and this will increase the risk of mudslides. 

The track is a little complicated. . . as it moves NW, it will continue to weaken, but it may take a turn to the East, which could put Matthew back in the Caribbean.  This would be the same time frame the computer models above (GFS, ECMWF, and NOGAPS) show a developing area of low pressure in the Caribbean.  Now it’s just a matter of seeing if Matthew will redevelop, or if a new area of low pressure will form.

Computer models with the track of Matthew are all over the place.  Some believe the system will regenerate and move across the Gulf of Mexico, while other keep it farther South, and some just have it becoming a remnant low and dissipating.

Lisa is still holding on, but it is weakening.  This system will stay far out in the Atlantic Ocean, eventually coming to an end next week as it enters cooler waters and unfavorable atmospheric conditions.

Tropical Storm Matthew moves into Central America

Posted by Sheena Parveen under Daily updates

Tropical Storm Matthew is moving onto the border of Nicaragua and Honduras with very heavy rains and wind speeds as high as 50 mph.  Tropical storm force winds are extending out 140 miles North of the center of Matthew.

Although Matthew is only a tropical storm, it is expected to drop 6 to 15 inches of rain in the next couple days as it moves across Central America and near the Yucatan Peninsula.  Matthew will slowly weaken as it moves over land, and the speed of the storm will decrease as well.  This slow speed is what will allow for high rainfall accumulations.  Coastal flooding along with high waves are occuring along where Matthew is making landfall.

Matthew will continue to be steered to the W/NW across land, then by Monday we could see this storm head for the Yucatan Peninsula.  The forecast cone grows wider with time because Matthew’s track heavily depends on an approaching trough from the NW.  Over the weekend and by early next week, we will have a much better idea on Matthew’s projected path, and the path of another area of low pressure that may possibly develop.

Some computer models are struggling to agree on where Matthew will be headed after the weekend.  The track of the models also heavily relies on an approaching trough from the NW, which will influence the direction Tropical Storm Matthew takes as it moves closer to the Gulf of Mexico.

The extended forecast for next Wednesday, September 29th sugests another area of low pressure developing in the wake of Matthew, just to its East.  This may be the storm to move North and develop further, but it has not developed yet.

Some computer models are picking up on this new area of low pressure forming, possibly from the remnants of Matthew.   The HWRF models shows the developing storm in the Caribbean by next week, nearing southern Cuba.

The GFS seems to be on the same track, developing a stronger area of low pressure through the Caribbean, and moving it more North.  Below is the GFS model 6 days from now, for Thursday, September 30th.

The Atlantic Ocean is only carrying one named storm at the time.  Tropical Storm Lisa is still holding on, but is expected to weaken is it moves into cooler waters with unfavorable atmospheric conditions.

The path continues N/NW with weakening expected over the weekend and into next week.  Lisa is about 320 miles NW of the Cape Verde Islands, not too far from where the storm was yesterday.

Aside from Lisa and Matthew, the rest of the tropics are quiet for the time being.  A large area of high pressure exists in the Northern Atlantic keeping a more stable atmosphere.

Tropical Storm Matthew organizes in Caribbean

Posted by Sheena Parveen under Daily updates

Today Invest 95L was upgraded to a tropical depression, and only a few hours later it was upgraded to a tropical storm.  It is now Tropical Storm Matthew, and further strengthening is expected.  As of the 5pm advisory, Tropical Storm Matthew was 435 miles East of Nicaragua.  Not much has changed in the location of the storm, but winds have increased now to 40 mph near the center. 

Computer models are in somewhat of an agreement on the track of Tropical Storm Matthew.  They agree it will continue West, then move over the Yucatan Peninsula, or possibly into Central America.  At that time, the system could take a turn North, into the Gulf, and that’s where some of the computer models are in disagreement.  Either way, this is something we will have to watch very closely into next week.

The forecast track is reflecting the thought of many computer models, moving the storm to the West, then as next week approaches, a wider forecast cone is apparent.  This means that as of now, the storm can move anywhere within the forecast cone on that given date.  The farther out you go in time, the more uncertain it gets, especially when you’re dealing with other weather systems playing a role in the movement in Tropical Storm Matthew.

The long range GFS model reflects the forecast track.  It takes Matthew over the Yucatan Peninsula over the weekend, then brings it back into the Caribbean next week, possibly as a hurricane.  The GFS model also shows movement to the North as it nears Cuba in 7 days.

The long range forecast has a cold front exiting the Southeast.  This could push the storm to the NE or North.  This scenario is for next Wednesday, 7 days from now.  The “L” between Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula represents Tropical Storm Matthew, which could be a much stronger system by that time.  The frontal boundary near Matthew in the map below will be critical in the movement of Matthew.

Lisa is a tropical storm again, still far out in the Atlantic.  As of the 5pm advisory, Lisa was about 320 miles W/NW of the Cape Verde Islands.  This storm isn’t expected to strengthen too much more, and will most likely dissipate in the Atlantic next week.

The track has it poses no threat to the U.S.  Lisa will be entering areas of higher wind shear and unfavorable atmospheric conditions.

Watching Invest 95L

Posted by Sheena Parveen under Daily updates

Invest 95L in the Caribbean is looking more favorable for development as it moves West.  Wind shear is relatively low ahead of the tropical disturbance, which will allow for further development.  Water temperatures are also very warm. . . in the mid 80’s.  This tropical wave is fairly unorganized, just a cluster of showers and thunderstorms. 

Computer models are mainly moving it over Central America, then possibly onto the Yucatan Peninsula.  But there are a few models that take this system into the Gulf of Mexico or the Florida Straights into next weekend.

The GFS model is one that moves Invest 95L across the Caribbean, then turning it to the NE, possibly moving it close to Florida.  Right now, this forecast is a long ways away.  The GFS model, as well as other reliable computer models, are developing this system into something stronger through the weekend and next week.

Besides Invest 95L, we are watching Tropical Storm Lisa still.  Lisa posses no threat to the U.S. as of now, and I don’t expect it to.  Currently it is almost stationary just West of the Cape Verde Islands.  Organization is poor and it is barely a tropical storm at this point.

The track for Lisa in the next few days keeps the system stationary.  After that, Lisa will take a W/NW path.  Lisa is also expected to stay at tropical storm strength as it moves across the Atlantic.

Wind shear is looking more favorable ahead of Invest 95L than it does for Lisa  in a few days from now.  Many other computer models are also showing Lisa dissipating in the Atlantic several days from now.

Caribbean about to get busy

Posted by Paul Dellegatto under Daily updates, MyFoxHurricane.com website

As we move into late September and October the focus of tropical development shifts from the eastern Atlantic (Cape Verde) to the western Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico. Already, we are keeping an eye on a vigorous tropical wave that should develop into a named storm during the next few days. While we can not predict an exact track for developing systems far in advance, it would make sense that the entire Gulf coast region should be prepared for a tropical storm/hurricane hit between now and mid- October. TCHP (Tropical Cyclone heat Potential) is already at near record levels and this potential fuel is ready to be tapped. The presence of a strong la Nina and recent tropical development trends in the eastern and central Atlantic all suggest that multiple storms will be developing farther west, in areas that would increase the risk of a storm impacting the continental United States.

Igor Batters Bermuda

Posted by Andy Johnson under Daily updates

The center of the eye of Hurricane Igor passed about 40 miles to the west of Bermuda at approximately 11PM EDT, September 19, 2010. Igor’s large circulation, however, still caused hurricane force gusts on Bermuda. At about 10:42 PM EDT, September 19, 2010, sustained winds were measured at 74 MPH with gusts to 93 MPH at the official weather station on the island. Huge waves rolled over beaches on the island especially on south facing shores.  Sustained tropical storm force winds (39MPH or greater) started at 9:34 AM EDT, September 19 and were still sustained at tropical storm force as I am writing at 9:00 AM EDT, September 20. Sustained gale force winds for more than 24 hours is a rare event at coastal sites in the tropics and subtropics.

The microwave image below was taken from the AQUA-1 satellite showing rain areas with Igor at 1:49 AM EDT, September 20, 2010.  At that point in time the eye was northwest of Bermuda and beginning to move away. So, Igor will not be considered as having made a direct strike with landfall on Bermuda even though winds gusts to hurricane force occurred.

The image below was taken from the ground based radar in Bermuda at 8:00 AM EDT, September 20, 2010 as the center of Hurricane Igor was about 200 miles north of Bermuda. Squalls can still be seen rotating from west to east across the island.

 The table of observations below is courtesy the Bermuda Weather Service Office. The lowest pressure of 29.49″ occurred at 11:55 PM (local Bermuda time), September 19, 2010.  The maximum wind gust of 93 MPH occurred at 11:22 PM (local Bermuda time), September 19, 2010.

The enhanced satellite image below shows that the heaviest convection is on the northeast side of the hurricane. Bermuda was in the northeast quadrant of the hurricane as Igor was making its closest approach to the island.  Surprisingly, Julia flared up on the morning of September 20th and increased from a 40 MPH tropical storm to 45 MPH even over colder water and the influence of shear from Igor. Julia will eventually be absorbed into Igor within the next day or two.

Huge waves are being generated all along the eastern seaboard and the western Atlantic. At 8AM EDT, September 20 the waves heights shown below ranged as high as 22.3′ at a buoy west of Bermuda. Even along the east coast of Florida waves were higher than 10′ just offshore.

Invest 94L has shown an increase in convection this morning and is likely to develop into a tropical storm in the next day or so. Another strong wave is just moving off of Africa. Another tropical wave has flared up in the eastern Caribbean. There is concern in the long range (the first week in October) of the eventual movement of this system into the Gulf or possibly affecting Florida and the other southeastern states along the Atlantic coast.

The GFS model shown below is valid for Saturday September 25 , 2010  at 8:00 PM. It suggests a tropical cyclone brewing in the SW Caribbean and another to the east of the Caribbean. The next names on the list are Lisa and Matthew. Which ever system becomes a tropical storm first will be given the name Lisa.