MyFoxHurricane.com blog

Tropical Storm Matthew organizes in Caribbean

Posted by Sheena Parveen under Daily updates

Today Invest 95L was upgraded to a tropical depression, and only a few hours later it was upgraded to a tropical storm.  It is now Tropical Storm Matthew, and further strengthening is expected.  As of the 5pm advisory, Tropical Storm Matthew was 435 miles East of Nicaragua.  Not much has changed in the location of the storm, but winds have increased now to 40 mph near the center. 

Computer models are in somewhat of an agreement on the track of Tropical Storm Matthew.  They agree it will continue West, then move over the Yucatan Peninsula, or possibly into Central America.  At that time, the system could take a turn North, into the Gulf, and that’s where some of the computer models are in disagreement.  Either way, this is something we will have to watch very closely into next week.

The forecast track is reflecting the thought of many computer models, moving the storm to the West, then as next week approaches, a wider forecast cone is apparent.  This means that as of now, the storm can move anywhere within the forecast cone on that given date.  The farther out you go in time, the more uncertain it gets, especially when you’re dealing with other weather systems playing a role in the movement in Tropical Storm Matthew.

The long range GFS model reflects the forecast track.  It takes Matthew over the Yucatan Peninsula over the weekend, then brings it back into the Caribbean next week, possibly as a hurricane.  The GFS model also shows movement to the North as it nears Cuba in 7 days.

The long range forecast has a cold front exiting the Southeast.  This could push the storm to the NE or North.  This scenario is for next Wednesday, 7 days from now.  The “L” between Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula represents Tropical Storm Matthew, which could be a much stronger system by that time.  The frontal boundary near Matthew in the map below will be critical in the movement of Matthew.

Lisa is a tropical storm again, still far out in the Atlantic.  As of the 5pm advisory, Lisa was about 320 miles W/NW of the Cape Verde Islands.  This storm isn’t expected to strengthen too much more, and will most likely dissipate in the Atlantic next week.

The track has it poses no threat to the U.S.  Lisa will be entering areas of higher wind shear and unfavorable atmospheric conditions.