MyFoxHurricane.com blog

A very close tropical set-up underway. . .

Posted by Sheena Parveen under Daily updates

A very close eye will be on the Caribbean over the next week as models are picking up on an area of low pressure forming.  This area of low pressure may either be from the remnants of Tropical Depression Matthew (once it further weakens over the Yucatan) or it could very well be a separate area of low pressure forming just in the wake of Matthew.  Models are very strong on forming this tropical system, then moving it North.  Below is the GFS model forecasting for Friday of next week.   Note that the GFS model is moving this developing system much faster than the others. 

The next model to look at is the ECMWF model, which is the European based model.  The forecast for the same time period is below.

Now we’ll look at the NOGAPS model.  The NOGAPS model is below for the same time frame as the previous two.

The bottom line is that there will be an area of low pressure developing and strengthening in the Caribbean, then it will most likely move North.  The question-and what the computer models are struggling to reach an agreement on-is “how far North will this new system go, and how will it impact Florida?”.    Right now, the system doesn’t seem to be approaching the state until the end of next week and into the weekend.  Forecasting so far out in time is difficult, but the one thing to notice in all 3 models is that they all pick up on a strengthening tropical system nearing the state.   Right now it is uncertain on how this tropical system will impact the state, and it becomes even more difficult as the system has not formed yet.  One main point to mention is that there currently is no low pressure area in the Caribbean.  This is certainly something we will continue to track and keep updated on.

Matthew is weakening as it moves over Central America dropping heavy rains.  Rainfall totals of 6 to 10 inches will be expected, and this will increase the risk of mudslides. 

The track is a little complicated. . . as it moves NW, it will continue to weaken, but it may take a turn to the East, which could put Matthew back in the Caribbean.  This would be the same time frame the computer models above (GFS, ECMWF, and NOGAPS) show a developing area of low pressure in the Caribbean.  Now it’s just a matter of seeing if Matthew will redevelop, or if a new area of low pressure will form.

Computer models with the track of Matthew are all over the place.  Some believe the system will regenerate and move across the Gulf of Mexico, while other keep it farther South, and some just have it becoming a remnant low and dissipating.

Lisa is still holding on, but it is weakening.  This system will stay far out in the Atlantic Ocean, eventually coming to an end next week as it enters cooler waters and unfavorable atmospheric conditions.