MyFoxHurricane.com blog

“Nicole” may be soon to form. . .

Posted by Sheena Parveen under Daily updates

Computer models continue to pick up on a developing area of low pressure in the Western Caribbean over the next several days.   Clusters of showers and storms are present just East of the Yucatan Peninsula, and this is the area we will be watching.  Below is the GFS model for next Wednesday at 5pm, when the new tropical system may be approaching the state.  There is a good chance it may become our next named storm, “Nicole”.  We’ll compare it to the ECMWF and NOGAPS  models.

The above GFS model shows the strengthening area of low pressure (possibly “Nicole”) moving North through Cuba, then up along the Southwest coast of Florida.  Now we’ll look at the ECMWF model (European model) for next Saturday at 12pm. 

The ECMWF model above takes the area of low pressure across Florida from the SW coast, then out into the Atlantic.  Now we’ll look at the NOGAPS model below for Friday at 8am.

All models are agreeing on an area of low pressure developing and moving North.  They are also in better agreement now on what side of the state it may impact first.  Of course this forecast can change, but as we move into this next week, forecasting for this system will become more accurate.  Once the area of low pressure becomes stronger in the Caribbean, computer models should have an easier time forecasting it, since there will be cyclonic flow in place.  

**Hurricane preparedness is very important right now.  You and your family should have a plan in case of a hurricane or evacuation.  Go to the home page of myfoxhurricane.com and click on the “additional resources” tab to find out how you can make a plan and be prepared for the rest of hurricane season.**

Circled in yellow below, in the Western Caribbean Sea, is the newly formed area of low pressure that computer models are developing.  So far, this broad area of low pressure is very unorganized, and there is not an obvious cyclonic circulation yet.  Any system that does develop will be surrounded by very warm water temperatures (mid 80’s) and pretty favorable atmospheric conditions.  We were also tracking Tropical Depression Matthew, but now Matthew is a remnant area of low pressure over Southern Mexico.  It’s still expected to drop very heavy rains, ranging anywhere from 10 to 20 inches!  This  will most likely spark flash floods and lead to mudslides.

Lisa is still in the Atlantic Ocean by Africa’s West coast, but it is evident that Lisa is encountering higher wind shear.  The image below shows Lisa as it continues to weaken.  This system will soon dissipate over the Atlantic Ocean.

Lisa will continue to move on a Northerly path, into cooler waters and unfavorable atmospheric conditions.