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Hurricane Tomas enters the Caribbean Sea. . .

Posted by Sheena Parveen under Daily updates

Hurricane Tomas, now a category 2 hurricane, has already moved across the Lesser Antilles, and now it heads for the Central Caribbean Sea where water temperatures are very warm and atmospheric conditions are favorable for strengthening.   Water temperatures are currently in the mid 80’s in the Caribbean, and wind shear is low enough to allow Tomas to become a major hurricane soon.

Tomas will continue on a westward path until it interacts with a cold front by the end of the week.  This front will approach Tomas from the West, pushing it away from the U.S.  Many models expect Tomas to move NE at the time it interacts with the cold front.

Models expect this turn as Tomas interacts with the frontal boundary. 

The GFS model develops Tomas as a major hurricane by Thursday, then turns the storm to the NE over Hispaniola as the cold front approaches from the West.

So Long, Shary; Tomas Tears across St. Lucia

Posted by Andy Johnson under Daily updates

Hurricane Shary weakened to tropical storm strength Sunday afternoon and was also declared extra-tropical by the NHC. A cold to the west of Shary caught up with the storm and the combination of high shear, low water temperatures and the baroclinic frontal system caused Shary to become a post-tropical system.  Post-Tropical Storm Shary will continue to move rapidly ENE  across the northern Atlantic but the NHC has issued its last advisory on Shary.

Hurricane Tomas strengthened rapidly today and winds were sustained at 90MPH at 6PM on Sunday, October 30, 2010 as the system was passing just south of St. Lucia. St. Lucia is a popular vacation destination spot with beautiful resorts and, unfortunately, there have been Ham radio reports of widespread damage on the island. The eye of Tomas moved through the channel between St. Lucia and St. Vincent. There have been lots of damage reports from St.  Vincent, as well as, Barbados, which was the first island hit by Tomas. Tomas is a classic Cape-Verde type hurricane. It is very rare to see a storm of that type so far south and east this late in the year. In fact, Tomas is the first hurricane to pass through the Windward Islands (the part of the Lesser Antilles south of 16N this late in the year since 1724. Tomas is expected to intensify into a major Category 3 hurricane later this week south of Hispaniola. The long range forecast calls for an upper level trough to pick up Tomas and move him northward by later in the week. If the trough does not cause Tomas to recurve he could continue further westward into the Caribbean Sea.

The enhanced GOES satellite image below shows the circular central dense overcast of Tomas when the center was just southwest of St. Lucia. Hewanorra airport on St. Lucia was closed due to flooding. As early as Noon EDT on Sunday, St. Lucia reported wind gusts of 69 MPH. The airport stopped reporting after that and before the strongest winds hit St. Lucia. So, it appears that the worst weather in the northern eyewall passed directly over St. Lucia. Even further north at Martinique winds gusted to 45 MPH and winds in Dominica gusted to 40 MPH. There is also a large convective cluster east of the center of Tomas which will continue to bring heavy rains of 4″ to 8″ across the Windward Islands.

The structure of Shary (shown below) has become elongated northeast-southwest and no longer resembles a tropical structure. As a result, Shary is an extratropical storm now.

 The Martinque radar shown below at 5;30 PM EDT, Sunday, October 30, 2010 shows a clearly defined eye located southwest of St. Lucia. The heaviest curved spiral bands were passing right over the island of St. Lucia at that time.

The GFS model valid Monday at 8PM shown below indicates that Tomas will likely be located south of the Dominican Rebublic with a blocking ridge to the north.

The GFS model below shows that by Friday at 8:00 AM, could begin recurving to the north due to a weakness in the subtropical ridge caused by an East Coast trough.

Hurricane Shary speeds away while Hurricane Tomas organizes

Posted by Sheena Parveen under Daily updates

Hurricane Shary is quickly moving off into the cooler Atlantic waters at a speed of 35mph.  This system poses no threat to the U.S. and will dissipate soon.  It’s hard to see where the weak hurricane is, since it is getting caught up in a cold front.

The track keeps it moving NE along with the front, and soon it will dissipate as conditions deteriorate.

As for Tomas, it is now a category 1 hurricane.  It’s continuing to be organized with more thunderstorm activity near the center today, increasing the wind speeds to 75 mph.  Outflow bands from the storm are apparent, and that indicates low wind shear which will continue over the next several days, possibly strengthening this system to a major hurricane.  Parts of the Lesser Antilles are experiencing hurricane force winds now, along with heavy rain.

Tomas will continue West/NW into the Caribbean Sea, where it has the potential to grow into a very large and strong hurricane.

By the time Tomas near Jamaica, a cold front will exit the Southeast U.S.  This front will act as a wall, not allowing Tomas to move closer to the SE coast.  The storm at that time will either turn South or NE.  The computer models below agree on this cold front interaction, but they are not all agreeing on what direction Tomas will take once it encounters this front.

The GFS model turns Tomas into a major hurricane by next week in the Caribbean Sea, then turns it to the NE with the approach of the cold front.

Tropical Storm Shary and Tomas make 19 named storms for the season

Posted by Sheena Parveen under Daily updates

With the formation of Tropical Storm Shary and now Tropical Storm Tomas, we now have had 19 named storms for this Atlantic hurricane season.  There have now been 21 storms in total, 10 of which have been hurricanes, and 8 of which have only gotten to tropical storm strength.  This hurricane season is now tied with the 5th most active hurricane season ever on record.   On August 5, 2010, the National Hurricane Center issued an outlook of 14-20 named storms, 8-12 hurricanes, and of those hurricanes, 4-6 being major hurricanes. 

Tropical Storm Shary, which was Invest 92L earlier, is gaining organization in the Atlantic Ocean, but is not a threat to the U.S.   This storm does not have much thunderstorm activity associated with it due to the invasion of some dry air.  This storm is getting closer to hurricane strength as it moves N/NE near 12 mph.  Shary will soon be interacting with another cold front to the West of the storm, which will push it to the NE and eventually absorb or cause the system to dissipate.

The track is narrow because so many computer models are predicting the NE movement of Tropical Storm Shary as the cold front nears.  At this point, the storm has not other choice but to continue in this path.

Tropical Storm Tomas has now formed from Invest 91L.  Organization is very obvious as the tropical storm has maintained a cyclonic flow.  Large and well organized outer bands are apparent with this system, which is indicating low wind shear, conducive for further development.

In several days, this system will interact with a cold front moving off the Southeast U.S. coast, which should ultimately hold this storm to the South.  Some computer models already pick up on this at the end of the forecast period, as they take a sharp turn to the N/NE.  Either way, this storm should cause strong winds and heavy rain for islands in the Caribbean Sea.

The track of Tomas continues it W/NW into the warm waters of the Caribbean Sea, where water temperatures are will into the mid 80’s.  By next week, conditions could be favorable enough for Tomas to develop into a major hurricane.

By next Thursday, the GFS model expects Tomas to be a strong storm,  possibly a strong hurricane at this point.  But a cold front will also be exiting the U.S. at that time, nearing Tomas from the NW, holding it South of us.

As U.S. temperatures cool, tropical waters remain warm

Posted by Sheena Parveen under Daily updates

Many areas around the country are experiencing fall, with some parts of the U.S. experiencing blizzards from the strongest storm system to ever hit the Midwest.  An all-time record low pressure was reported of 28.20″ (954.9 mb) in Bigfork, Minnesota on October 26th.  Despite the cooler temperatures filtering into the U.S., tropical water temperatures are still on the warm side, conducive for tropical development.  Water temperatures are still in the mid 80’s in the Caribbean Sea, mid to low 80’s in the Gulf of Mexico, and near 80 degrees closer to Bermuda. 

A few tropical waves have formed and become better organized since 24 hours ago.  There is Invest 90L, Invest 91L, and Invest 92L.

Invest 90L is about 1200 miles NW of the Cape Verde Islands.  It is likely that gale force winds are occurring within this system; winds of 34 to 47 knots (39 to 54 mph).  There is a chance for this system to continue developing further.

No matter what the outcome of 90L, the system will be directed to the North as a cold front sweeps near and high pressure builds in to its West. 

Invest 91L is 1000 miles E/SE of the Windward Islands.  This system is currently very unorganized, but it does have the potential to slowly develop as it tracks to the W/NW.

Computer models move the storm through the Caribbean over the next several days, some models moving the storm farther North than others. 

Invest 92L is the most organized of them all so far.  An area of low pressure is forming in this system, and atmospheric conditions appear to be favorable over the next few days to form a subtropical or tropical depression.  92L is about 700 miles SE of Bermuda.

As with Invest 90L, a cold front will approach from the West and push this system North.  High pressure will also build in to the West of the cold front, keeping this system away from the U.S.

Eastern Atlantic Still Active

Posted by Andy Johnson under Daily updates

This year is already the 6th most active Atlantic hurricane season on record. Officially, hurricane season continues until November 30. In some rare cases, December hurricanes have been observed. It is very unlikely we would break the all-time record of 28 named storms  set in 2005 but we could end up being in the top 5 most active seaseons before 2010 is over.

Oddly enough, the eastern Atlantic continues to be fairly active this late into October. Usually, in late October and November our focus is on the western Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea for tropical development.  Invest 90L is fairly far to the north in the eastern Atlantic and will be encountering cooler temperatures over the next few days. However, convection has become more circular in appearance today and the NHC gives the system a 30% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Steering currents are very weak so Invest 90L is nearly stationary. The light shear could allow some development.

Invest 91L developed today and is located further south than Invest 90L  Invest 91L is over warmer waters than 90L and shear is also low over 91L . Some of the longer range models have 90L becoming a tropical depression or storm by the first part of next week. One scenario has the system moving into northern South America and another scenario would be for the system to intensify more over the central Caribbean.

A third system northeast  of the Leeward Islands is associated with an upper level low interacting with a surface trough. Over the next few days, this system could build downward in the atmosphere and potentially become a subtropical depression or storm.

The satellite image below is a closer view of the trio in the Atlantic. The moisture field around Invest 91L has increased quite a bit today. Notice the stream of moisture connected all the way back to another tropical wave getting ready to exit Africa in the Sahel region.

The GFS model shown below is valid at Friday at 8:00 PM. There is a large high pressure area north of Invest 90L  which will block recurvature in the near term. The GFS strengthens the subtropical low more than Invest 90L north of Hispaniola by Friday night.

The longer range GFS model valid Tuesday morning is shown below. By then, it has Invest 90L recurving into the northern Atlantic and the subtropical low weakening. Invest 91L is shown as a possible depression north of Venezuela.

Richard’s gone; Watching the Eastern Atlantic

Posted by Andy Johnson under Daily updates

Usually when tropical systems move into the warm Gulf of Mexico you would expect them to intensify.  In the latter part of the season, this is not necessarily the case as we have seen with Richard.  The combination of a 2-day track over land ,including some mountains, in addition to dry air in the Gulf plus moderate shear in the Gulf conspired to weaken Richard to a remnant low pressure area. The NHC issued its final advisory on Richard at 11:00 AM EDT, Tuesday, October 26, 2010.

Invest 90L  has not strengthened and the NHC gives 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours. It is at a fairly far north latitude and water temperatures are cooler in the eastern Atlantic. Its structure shows the heaviest convection far removed from the center. As a result, if 90L does develop it may initially become a subtropical cyclone. Tropical cyclones have the heaviest convection and wind close to the center.

In addition to Invest 90L, there is a another disturbance located farther to the west as shown in the satellite image below.

The GFS (Global Forecast Model) shown below indicates that by Saturday at 8:00 AM both Invest 90L and another disturbance located further west could develop into subtropical depressions or storms. Since both systems will likely recurve, there does not appear to be any danger at this time of either of them reaching Florida. The only exception would be if the ridge shown in orange below over the eastern U.S. moves out to sea and forces the second system towards the west. That it still a long way out in time and the system has not even formed yet.

Richard weakens to Depression

Posted by Andy Johnson under Daily updates

Hurricane Richard made landfall Sunday night at 8:45 PM EDT 20 miles south-southwest of Belize City, the most populous city in Belize as a Category 1 hurricane. Fortunately the radius of strong winds with Richard was small and the eye contracted right as he was making landfall. As a result, the highest winds in Belize City Airport (only 20 miles away from the center) were 37 MPH with gusts to 62 MPH. The highest winds were concentrated in a less populous area to the south. The center of the hurricane passed very near  Belmopan, the new capital of the country located about 50 miles inland. However, Richard had weakened by the time he reached the capital.

Earlier in the day on Sunday, phone service was knocked out to some of the offshore islands  such as Utila and Roatan, north of Honduras. Power was out across much of the entire county of Belize as Richard was coming ashore.  Building codes are not as stringent as they are in the Cayman Island or here in Florida, so even Category 1 force winds that occurred near where the center crossed the coast likely caused alot of damage. The good news is that there have not been any reports of deaths or injuries as of Monday, October 25, 2010. Also, since the circulation was small and the movement fairly quick, torrential rains did not fall. For instance, Belize City only reported a total of 3.66″ which is not unusually high in terms of rainfall in  hurricanes.

The enhanced satellite image shown below at 12:04 PM EDT showed that all intense convection (red areas) had dissipated. Richard was downgraded to a tropical depression at 11:00 AM EDT, Monday, October 25.

The area of heavy convection that I noted yesterday to the east of Richard has weakened considerably today.  Invest 90L in the Eastern Atlantic has a circular appearance but looks more like a sub-tropical system than a tropical system. In a subtropical system the strongest winds and heaviest rain are concentrated further away from the center than in a tropical system. The heaviest convection in the image below is located well to the northeast of the center.

A closer view of Invest 90L shown below confirms a comma-like appearance with most of the heaviest weather northeast of the center.

The long range GFS model valid Friday at 8:00 AM shows that Invest 90L might be a tropical or subtropical storm in the eastern Atlantic.  The model also shows another system closer to Bermuda in the western Atlantic in the weakness between two ridges of high pressure - one near the Azores and one over the eastern U.S.

Richard hits Belize

Posted by Andy Johnson under Daily updates

Hurricane Richard made landfall at 8:45 PM EDT, October 24, 2010 aobut 20  miles south-southwest of  Belize City. The radar image from Belize had an excellent presentation of the eye of Hurricane Richard late Sunday afternoon. The center was passing over the keys just offshore of the Belize mainland including Halfmoon Caye. The northern eyewall which normally contains some of the strongest winds passed over  Belize City this evening.  Belize City used to be the capital of Belize when the country was named British Honduras. Hurricane Hattie with sustained winds of 190 MPH in 1961 destroyed about 75% of the city. It was decided to move the capital inland to a new location away from the storm surge. The new capital was named Belmopan and is about 50 miles inland from the former capital. Richard will begin weakening now that it has made landfall and will continue to weaken on its trek over Belize, Guatemala and into Mexico. By the time it reaches the Gulf of Mexico, it will likely only be a remnant low and should not redevelop.

The radar image shown below was taken at 9;30 PM EDT, Sunday October 25, 2010. The circular eye structure was still visible after making landfall about an hour earlier.

A hurricane reconnaissance aircraft flew into Hurricane Richard Sunday afternoon. The plane found flight level winds at 4166 feet of 94.4 MPH with surface winds of 77.1 MPH.  The meteorologists on board noted a closed, circular eyewall.

The enhanced IR satellite image below shows a symmetrical structure to the convection in a classic hurricane shape.  The eye can be clearly seen, as well.

The Atlantic Mercator view shown below indicates another tropical wave in the wake of Richard over the central Caribbean. Another disturbance in the eastern Atlantic has been identified as Invest 90L Some models show the system making it into the central North Atlantic before recurving by the end of  the week.

The image below is a close-up of Invest 90L. Strong shearing has given 90L an elongated appearance with the heaviest convection to the northeast of the center.

Richard now a hurricane, nearing Belize

Posted by Sheena Parveen under Daily updates

Richard has been upgraded to a category 1 hurricane as of the 11am advisory from the National Hurricane Center.  Maximum sustained winds are found to be 85 mph near the center of the storm, and it could be possible for Richard to reach category 2 strength before making landfall in Belize, or somewhere outside the border of Belize.  Belize is under a hurricane warning, and surrounding areas are under either a hurricane or tropical storm warning. 

The hurricane track hasn’t changed much from Saturday’s track, keeping Richard South, nearing Belize or the Yucatan Peninsula by Sunday evening.  At that point, it could be a category 2 hurricane.

Computer models continue Richard West, then some bring it back into the Gulf of Mexico while a few others dissipate the system over Central America or shortly after it exits into the Gulf.  Either way, conditions don’t appear to be too favorable for further strengthening of Richard once it emerges in the Gulf.

Wave heights around the center of the tropical storm are close to 12 feet, and storm surge is expected to be several feet as it nears land.