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Tropical Storm Shary and Tomas make 19 named storms for the season

Posted by Sheena Parveen under Daily updates

With the formation of Tropical Storm Shary and now Tropical Storm Tomas, we now have had 19 named storms for this Atlantic hurricane season.  There have now been 21 storms in total, 10 of which have been hurricanes, and 8 of which have only gotten to tropical storm strength.  This hurricane season is now tied with the 5th most active hurricane season ever on record.   On August 5, 2010, the National Hurricane Center issued an outlook of 14-20 named storms, 8-12 hurricanes, and of those hurricanes, 4-6 being major hurricanes. 

Tropical Storm Shary, which was Invest 92L earlier, is gaining organization in the Atlantic Ocean, but is not a threat to the U.S.   This storm does not have much thunderstorm activity associated with it due to the invasion of some dry air.  This storm is getting closer to hurricane strength as it moves N/NE near 12 mph.  Shary will soon be interacting with another cold front to the West of the storm, which will push it to the NE and eventually absorb or cause the system to dissipate.

The track is narrow because so many computer models are predicting the NE movement of Tropical Storm Shary as the cold front nears.  At this point, the storm has not other choice but to continue in this path.

Tropical Storm Tomas has now formed from Invest 91L.  Organization is very obvious as the tropical storm has maintained a cyclonic flow.  Large and well organized outer bands are apparent with this system, which is indicating low wind shear, conducive for further development.

In several days, this system will interact with a cold front moving off the Southeast U.S. coast, which should ultimately hold this storm to the South.  Some computer models already pick up on this at the end of the forecast period, as they take a sharp turn to the N/NE.  Either way, this storm should cause strong winds and heavy rain for islands in the Caribbean Sea.

The track of Tomas continues it W/NW into the warm waters of the Caribbean Sea, where water temperatures are will into the mid 80’s.  By next week, conditions could be favorable enough for Tomas to develop into a major hurricane.

By next Thursday, the GFS model expects Tomas to be a strong storm,  possibly a strong hurricane at this point.  But a cold front will also be exiting the U.S. at that time, nearing Tomas from the NW, holding it South of us.