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Tomas Weakens but Still A Threat

Posted by Andy Johnson under Daily updates

Thomas weakened to a tropical storm Sunday and continues as a tropical storm on Monday, November 1, 2010. The weakening can be attributed to 20 knots of southwesterly wind shear which tilted the storm to the northeast at upper levels and separated most of the convection to the northeast of the center of low level circulation.  This afternoon, I’ve noticed that the areal coverage has increased and also convection is reorganizing closer to the center. This may indicate that the weakening phase has stopped. The NHC does expect Tomas to regain hurricane strength once again later in the weak.

The future track of Tomas depends on where, when and even if the long wave trough along the eastern U.S. picks up the storm and recurves him to the northeast. There are now at least two models that do not show Tomas being picked up by the trough. The GFS model continues to show landfall in Haiti, which would be doubly tragic as they are still reeling from the earthquake earlier this year.

There is another tropical wave east of the Lesser Antilles which has shown a slight increase in convection today. There are only two more names on the hurricane list - Virginie and Walter. It is possible that we could reach the end of the list before 2010 is over.

The enhanced satellite image below shows an increase in convection since yesterday but the convection is still asymmetrical and displaced mostly east of the low level center of circulation. Some new convection has formed  far west of the center and could be entrained into the circulation as the wind shear gradually weakens over the next few days. Notice that the circulation is pretty far to the south and some convection is very close to Aruba, Bonaire and Curacao, as well as, Venezuela.

Tomas is kickup up seas to 13.1 feet in the eastern Caribbean.

 The wind shear forecast shown below indicates that wind shear will be light (blue areas) over Tomas in the next 48 hours. The stronger wind shear shown in yellow will remain further to the north.

Notice in the  plot below that two models, the NOGAPS (shown in green) and the GFDL (shown in red) stall Tomas in the Caribbean and do not complete recurvature into the Atlantic.

The GFS model shown below valid at 8:00 PM Wednesday, show a stronger Tomas south of Jamaica.

The GFS model shown below valid at 7:00 AM on Sunday, shows a recurving Tomas in the Atlantic north of Haiti. If the GFS forecast plays out, it could be devastating to Haiti as they are still trying to recover from the earthquake damage.