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20th
JUL

“Bonnie” on the way??

Posted by Paul Dellegatto under Daily updates, MyFoxHurricane.com website

The vigorous tropical wave located near Hispaniola continues to look better organized on satellite this afternoon. While we are not seeing any dramatic drop in atmospheric pressure, environmental conditions continue to favor development. An upper level low, clearly seen on water vapor imagery, is actually aiding in thunderstorm development. Based on current trends it seems likely that a tropical depression or storm will be developing north of Hispinola or near the south east Bahamas during the next 24 to 48 hours.

The forecast track is becoming more clear cut as a subtropical ridge will stay north of the system for the next few days. Slow intensification is likely, but there is an area of dry air aloft over the Bahamas and Florida that could hinder development as the depression/storm approaches the United States. We will have to watch this area closely. Any impacts to Florida would not be until later this week with the potential of a storm in the Gulf by the end of the weekend.

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8th
JUL

TD #2 heading for Texas/Mexico

Posted by Paul Dellegatto under Daily updates, MyFoxHurricane.com website

While TD #2 may not become a hurricane, there are serious concerns about flooding in Texas and Mexico from heavy rainfall over swollen creeks and rivers. There are areas still flooded from the passage of hurricane “Alex” that may receive an additional 4″ to 8″ of rainfall. Already bands of rain have been increasing on the Corpus Christi radar and this trend will continue along the coast thru Thursday.

Despite a lack of deep convection around the center of the depression, there is an opportunity for TD #2 to become TS “Bonnie” before landfall Thursday night. Seas surface temps have been cooled by the passage of “Alex”, but are still warm enough to support intensification. Vertical wind shear is expected to remain low. Storm surge and wind impacts should be rather low unless the storm intensifys rapidly, which I do not expect to happen due to the storm’s large size and lack of thunderstorms near the center.

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