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Richard’s gone; Watching the Eastern Atlantic

Posted by Andy Johnson under Daily updates

Usually when tropical systems move into the warm Gulf of Mexico you would expect them to intensify.  In the latter part of the season, this is not necessarily the case as we have seen with Richard.  The combination of a 2-day track over land ,including some mountains, in addition to dry air in the Gulf plus moderate shear in the Gulf conspired to weaken Richard to a remnant low pressure area. The NHC issued its final advisory on Richard at 11:00 AM EDT, Tuesday, October 26, 2010.

Invest 90L  has not strengthened and the NHC gives 90L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours. It is at a fairly far north latitude and water temperatures are cooler in the eastern Atlantic. Its structure shows the heaviest convection far removed from the center. As a result, if 90L does develop it may initially become a subtropical cyclone. Tropical cyclones have the heaviest convection and wind close to the center.

In addition to Invest 90L, there is a another disturbance located farther to the west as shown in the satellite image below.

The GFS (Global Forecast Model) shown below indicates that by Saturday at 8:00 AM both Invest 90L and another disturbance located further west could develop into subtropical depressions or storms. Since both systems will likely recurve, there does not appear to be any danger at this time of either of them reaching Florida. The only exception would be if the ridge shown in orange below over the eastern U.S. moves out to sea and forces the second system towards the west. That it still a long way out in time and the system has not even formed yet.

Richard weakens to Depression

Posted by Andy Johnson under Daily updates

Hurricane Richard made landfall Sunday night at 8:45 PM EDT 20 miles south-southwest of Belize City, the most populous city in Belize as a Category 1 hurricane. Fortunately the radius of strong winds with Richard was small and the eye contracted right as he was making landfall. As a result, the highest winds in Belize City Airport (only 20 miles away from the center) were 37 MPH with gusts to 62 MPH. The highest winds were concentrated in a less populous area to the south. The center of the hurricane passed very near  Belmopan, the new capital of the country located about 50 miles inland. However, Richard had weakened by the time he reached the capital.

Earlier in the day on Sunday, phone service was knocked out to some of the offshore islands  such as Utila and Roatan, north of Honduras. Power was out across much of the entire county of Belize as Richard was coming ashore.  Building codes are not as stringent as they are in the Cayman Island or here in Florida, so even Category 1 force winds that occurred near where the center crossed the coast likely caused alot of damage. The good news is that there have not been any reports of deaths or injuries as of Monday, October 25, 2010. Also, since the circulation was small and the movement fairly quick, torrential rains did not fall. For instance, Belize City only reported a total of 3.66″ which is not unusually high in terms of rainfall in  hurricanes.

The enhanced satellite image shown below at 12:04 PM EDT showed that all intense convection (red areas) had dissipated. Richard was downgraded to a tropical depression at 11:00 AM EDT, Monday, October 25.

The area of heavy convection that I noted yesterday to the east of Richard has weakened considerably today.  Invest 90L in the Eastern Atlantic has a circular appearance but looks more like a sub-tropical system than a tropical system. In a subtropical system the strongest winds and heaviest rain are concentrated further away from the center than in a tropical system. The heaviest convection in the image below is located well to the northeast of the center.

A closer view of Invest 90L shown below confirms a comma-like appearance with most of the heaviest weather northeast of the center.

The long range GFS model valid Friday at 8:00 AM shows that Invest 90L might be a tropical or subtropical storm in the eastern Atlantic.  The model also shows another system closer to Bermuda in the western Atlantic in the weakness between two ridges of high pressure - one near the Azores and one over the eastern U.S.

Richard hits Belize

Posted by Andy Johnson under Daily updates

Hurricane Richard made landfall at 8:45 PM EDT, October 24, 2010 aobut 20  miles south-southwest of  Belize City. The radar image from Belize had an excellent presentation of the eye of Hurricane Richard late Sunday afternoon. The center was passing over the keys just offshore of the Belize mainland including Halfmoon Caye. The northern eyewall which normally contains some of the strongest winds passed over  Belize City this evening.  Belize City used to be the capital of Belize when the country was named British Honduras. Hurricane Hattie with sustained winds of 190 MPH in 1961 destroyed about 75% of the city. It was decided to move the capital inland to a new location away from the storm surge. The new capital was named Belmopan and is about 50 miles inland from the former capital. Richard will begin weakening now that it has made landfall and will continue to weaken on its trek over Belize, Guatemala and into Mexico. By the time it reaches the Gulf of Mexico, it will likely only be a remnant low and should not redevelop.

The radar image shown below was taken at 9;30 PM EDT, Sunday October 25, 2010. The circular eye structure was still visible after making landfall about an hour earlier.

A hurricane reconnaissance aircraft flew into Hurricane Richard Sunday afternoon. The plane found flight level winds at 4166 feet of 94.4 MPH with surface winds of 77.1 MPH.  The meteorologists on board noted a closed, circular eyewall.

The enhanced IR satellite image below shows a symmetrical structure to the convection in a classic hurricane shape.  The eye can be clearly seen, as well.

The Atlantic Mercator view shown below indicates another tropical wave in the wake of Richard over the central Caribbean. Another disturbance in the eastern Atlantic has been identified as Invest 90L Some models show the system making it into the central North Atlantic before recurving by the end of  the week.

The image below is a close-up of Invest 90L. Strong shearing has given 90L an elongated appearance with the heaviest convection to the northeast of the center.

Richard now a hurricane, nearing Belize

Posted by Sheena Parveen under Daily updates

Richard has been upgraded to a category 1 hurricane as of the 11am advisory from the National Hurricane Center.  Maximum sustained winds are found to be 85 mph near the center of the storm, and it could be possible for Richard to reach category 2 strength before making landfall in Belize, or somewhere outside the border of Belize.  Belize is under a hurricane warning, and surrounding areas are under either a hurricane or tropical storm warning. 

The hurricane track hasn’t changed much from Saturday’s track, keeping Richard South, nearing Belize or the Yucatan Peninsula by Sunday evening.  At that point, it could be a category 2 hurricane.

Computer models continue Richard West, then some bring it back into the Gulf of Mexico while a few others dissipate the system over Central America or shortly after it exits into the Gulf.  Either way, conditions don’t appear to be too favorable for further strengthening of Richard once it emerges in the Gulf.

Wave heights around the center of the tropical storm are close to 12 feet, and storm surge is expected to be several feet as it nears land. 

Richard skirting Honduras

Posted by Andy Johnson under Daily updates

The tropics are fairly active for this late in the season. The center of Tropical Storm Richard is brushing the northern coast of Honduras headed for Belize. Two strong tropical waves have moved off the coast of Africa in the eastern Atlantic. By this time of year, the likelihood of African disturbances developing into tropical cyclones is low due to increasing shear and decreasing temperatures.

The overall circulation of  Tropical Storm Richard is of moderate size but the radii of tropical storm winds is fairly small. Tropical storm force winds extend outward 15 miles to the SW of the center, 75 miles to the NW and 105 miles to the NE. Due to the asymmetrical circulation the highest winds will probably remain near the coast of Honduras or just offshore. The enhanced satellite  picture shown below does not indicate an eye forming which would be a tipoff to  a hurricane developing. The NHC is predicting that Richard could briefly become a hurricane before making landfall in Belize.

The good news for Florida is that as Richard makes landfall it will weaken significantly over Central America and Mexico. It is not likely that Richard will redevelop into a strong tropical storm by the time he reaches the Gulf of Mexico.

A lot of dry air remains over Florida and the Gulf of Mexico. This will further sap the strength of Richard by the times the remnant low reaches the Gulf on Tuesday.

One tropical wave is near the Cape Verde Islands and another is further southeast just moving off the coast of Africa. NHC is only giving the first wave a 10% of becoming a tropical depression in the next 48 hours.

Tropical Storm Richard staying South

Posted by Sheena Parveen under Daily updates

Tropical Storm Richard will be brushing by the Northern tip of Honduras by Saturday night, then heading West toward Belize or the Yucatan Peninsula.  It is encountering lower wind shear at this time, which may cause the system to gain some strength before moving on land in a couple days. 

Computer models are now keeping Richard farther South than they were earlier.  High pressure will be steering this system westward, blocking it from moving North.

The track for Richard is reflecting the computer models.  This track is more South than the previous one, keeping Richard closer to Central America.   Weakening will occur as this system moves over land, but the part models struggle with now, is whether or not it will dissipate over land.  If it does not dissipate, it may move into the Gulf of Mexico, where conditions would not be that great for further development.

The GFS is forecasting a dissipating tropical storm as it moves over land.  Below is the time frame for Thursday of next week, and the model doesn’t pick up on a tropical system in the Gulf or Caribbean.

Computer models coming in agreement with Richard’s track

Posted by Sheena Parveen under Daily updates

On Thursday, computer models were struggling with the path of Tropical Storm Richard over the next several days.  The main cause of this was an area of high pressure over the Eastern part of the country. . . some models were struggling with how strong this high may be.  Now, these models are forecasting a stronger area of high pressure–strong enough to keep Richard to our South.

The new forecast track reflects the consensus of the models, keeping it West, but still growing wider at the end, still showing some uncertainty on where Richard may go once it exits the Yucatan Peninsula.

Richard is sitting fairly stationary at this point, only moving at speeds of 3 mph to the West.  Once Richard gets caught in the Easterly winds around the area of high pressure setting up over the Eastern half of the country, it will pick up some speed.  Strong thunderstorm activity is still present near the center of Richard, and wind shear has lightened up around the storm, opening up the door for strengthening before making landfall somewhere along Central America or the Yucatan Peninsula.

The GFDL model also has a different outcome than it did yesterday, staying much farther South than it originally did.  The GFDL along with the HWRF model both have changed their tracks due to an increasingly strong area of high pressure that will set  up over the country, keeping Richard farther South.  Below is for Next Tuesday afternoon.  It is still uncertain where Richard will move after heading over the Yucatan, and it is uncertain how much it will weaken.

A close eye will be kept on this storm, since other weather elements will strongly influence whether or not it will make landfall in the Southeast.  For now, the GFS model expects it to be on the same track as many of the other computer models.

Computer models struggle with Tropical Storm Richard

Posted by Sheena Parveen under Daily updates

Tropical Storm Richard formed earlier today in the Caribbean Sea, but a weak system for now with maximum winds of 40 mph near the center.  Many models do agree on the path Richard will take through the Caribbean, but the question is, “where will it go once it emerges in the Gulf of Mexico, if it does?”  The answer is what the models are struggling to agree on, which will be sometime next week.

Currently, Richard is no better organized than it was earlier today.  But there is plenty of moisture and warm waters in the Caribbean to make this storm stronger over the weekend and into the early part of next week.

The track reflects many of the computer models, and as we move into next week, once the storm emerges in the Gulf of Mexico, the forecast cone grows very wide.  This is showing the uncertainty of Richard in the long term.  An approaching cold front will also play an important role in the direction Richard takes as it moves into the warm Gulf waters.  If the front reaches Richard at the right time, it could push the storm toward the NE.  If the cold front is slower, it may allow Richard to move farther West through the Gulf of Mexico.  At this time, there are too many scenarios to choose from, so we’ll have to keep an eye on all weather elements for now.

Below is the HWRF model–one that takes Richard near Florida by mid-week next week.  The GFDL also agrees with the HWRF model, another more reliable computer model.

The CMC is on a very different track than the HWRF above.  This model washes out the storm either over Central America or the Gulf of Mexico.  Other models that agree with this one are the NGP, GFS, and ECMWF.  There may be another tropical system out in the Atlantic, but nothing of our concern.  More eyes will be on Richard.

Tropical Storm Richard forms in the Caribbean

Posted by Jim Weber under Daily updates

Tropical Storm Richard was named this morning in the Caribbean. The Hurricane Reconnaissance plane has been flying in the system all morning long and found a surface wind of 37 knots and a minimum pressure of 1006 MB.

The center of circulation is on the western side of the deep convection. Slow intensification is expected over the next couple of days. Currently the steering currents are very weak, but a motion towards the west should begin by this evening.

The computer models have not shown much agreement thus far. Many of the computer models move Richard toward the Yucatan and weaken it. Some of the more reliable models suggest a more eastward track and eventually being pulled towards the northeast in response to a deepening trough.

The GFDL intesifies this into a Hurricane and moves it towards central Florida early next week.

This is a long range forecast so this is still a very questionable outcome, but it is within the realm of possibilities. This is a system that will have to be monitored closely, but with dry air and sheer to the northwest of Richard only moderate intensification is expected in the short term.

Tropical disturbance becomes Invest 99L. . .

Posted by Sheena Parveen under Daily updates

The area of low pressure in the Southern Caribbean has now been labeled Invest 99L.  For now, it is very unorganized with no defined cyclonic circulation.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms exist throughout, but any organization will be slow to occur.

Computer models are watching this system now, and most take it over Central America.  High pressure and an exiting cold front next week will keep this system South of us.

The GFS model is projecting a much weaker system than it was last week, barely developing the area of low pressure.  Below is the GFS forecast for next Friday.